Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
The Donetsk separatists arrested a number of prominent pro- and anti-regime figures while in Luhansk they quietly installed a new deputy “prime minister”. Both regimes played down the COVID-pandemic despite signs that it is worsening again, and reiterated promises that the Russian vaccine would be delivered soon. They also announced a unilateral handover of prisoners.
Donetsk dissident arrested on spying accusations
A number of prominent critics and supporters of the “DNR” were arrested at the year’s end. The most-well known is Roman Manekin, a Donetsk-based blogger and former journalist, who for years was among a handful of critics of the separatist regime, albeit with a strongly pro-Russian position. The “State Security Ministry” said on 28 December that it had arrested Manekin on suspicion of spying for Ukraine.
The Ministry, commonly known by its Russian acronym MGB, claimed that Manekin may have cooperated with Stanislav Aseyev, whom it called a Ukrainian spy. Aseyev, whose name is also spelt Asieiev, is a freelance journalist who worked for Ukrainian and US media before being abducted by the MGB in 2017. He was released in 2019 after more than two years of torture and detention.
Apparently the MGB accuses Manekin of accepting money from Aseyev in order to work for Ukrainian intelligence. Aseyev fiercely denied this claim. He did, however, engage in a public argument with Manekin on Facebook in October, in which Aseyev accused him of making false claims about his detention. In the comments to his post, Manekin warns that it is dangerous to communicate via private message, because “they can always say that we exchanged instructions or reports about tasks” – exactly what happened two months later, when forged private messages published by an MGB-linked anonymous Telegram channel served to justify Manekin’s arrest.
Manekin has been detained before, but always temporarily, apparently because of his good ties in both Moscow and Donetsk. His latest detention happened shortly after Aseyev published a book in Germany with essays about his ordeal in Donetsk’s infamous Izolatsia prison.
Head of Pushilin’s Titushki under arrest?
Also detained in December was apparently Roman Troshin, a prominent backer of separatist leader Denis Pushilin. Troshin, a former kickboxing champion, headed the People’s Guard, a volunteer force modeled after Russian and Soviet self-defence groups. His group has in the past acted as “titushki” – brutal thugs who intimidate opposition protests. The Donetsky Aborigen anonymous Telegram channel claimed that Troshin had engaged in large-scale blackmailing and extortion of businesses. There was no confirmation of his arrest, but Troshin’s accounts on Vkontakte and Instagram remained idle since 17 December.
The third prominent detainee was Maxim Leshchenko, who had been chief of staff to separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko. After Zakharchenko’s assassination in 2018, Leshchenko was appointed CEO of the separatist-controlled Voda Donbassa utility company. He was apparently arrested during an Interior Ministry sting operation against corrupt Voda Donbassa officials, video footage of which was published on 28 December. The Russian Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper reported the next day that Leshchenko was among those detained.
Also in late December, the “DNR” arrested the director of the Donetsk traumatology centre and another doctor on embezzlement charges, according to a report in the Ukrainian Novosti Donbassa news site.
Secrecy shrouds senior appointment in the “LNR”
Meanwhile in Luhansk, a new “deputy prime minister”, Anna Todorova, suddenly appeared in early January. As with past “LNR” staff changes, separatist media made absolutely no mention of it. Todorova’s new role became public on 4 January, when the “government” website and the official LITs news site reported that she had met with representatives of the Russian aid group Doktor Liza in Luhansk. There was no public information about Natalya Tikhonskaya, who previously held the position of deputy prime minister and whose name vanished from the government website. Tikhanskaya was last mentioned there in her old role on 28 December.
The anonymous Telegram Channel Tainy Luganskoi Respubliki (Secrets of the Luhansk Republic) claimed that Todorova only got her job because she was Prime Minister Igor Kozlov’s mistress.
The “LNR” has a long record of secrecy about government figures. In 2019, former interior ministry official Yury Govtvin was installed as first deputy prime minister without any public announcement (see Newsletter 67).
COVID raging despite claims of control
As the coronavirus pandemic worsened all over Europe, the People’s Republics continued to play down its effects despite signs of another spike in infections.
“DNR” leader Pushilin claimed after a meeting with health officials on 13 January that the situation was “stable and under control”. On the same day, schools and universities in the “DNR” opened again after the New Year break. Separatist-controlled TV on 13 January showed pupils disinfecting hands and being screened for temperature upon entering their school building in Donetsk.
However, even the official separatist figures showed a rise in cases and a severe shortage of tests in January. In the week up to 17 January, the Donetsk separatists reported 1,696 cases and 136 deaths from COVID-19, significantly more than in December, when those numbers were 997 cases/78 deaths (as of 20 December) and 1.149/91 (27 December). Numbers then dropped to 897/80 and 474/51 in early January, most probably because of the reduced testing during the New Year holidays.
Most alarming however was the positive rate, which shot up to a staggering 81.5 per cent on 17 January, when 224 of 275 tests turned out to be positive, according to the separatist health “ministry”. The World Health Organization recommends this rate to be below 5 per cent if testing is to adequately reflect infections. As in the past, the ministry regularly added “clinically diagnosed” COVID-cases to its statistics, i.e. without testing for patients with strong symptoms. Not added, however, were cases of pneumonia, which the ministry mentions separately. On 17 January alone, there were pneumonia 84 new cases and a total of 1816, of which 678 needed oxygen treatment.
“LNR” figures remain suspiciously low
The situation in the “LNR” was even less clear. The Luhansk separatists have always published suspiciously low figures, prompting accusations of massive underreporting. The region’s Kyiv-appointed governor even claimed last month that more than 70 per cent of people who arrive from the “LNR” in government-controlled areas are COVID-positive.
In the week leading up to 17 January, the “LNR” reported 148 cases and 13 deaths. In the week before, 126 cases and 11 deaths. As of 20 January, the official LITs website reported a total of 2.415 cases and 206 deaths. The counter on the official “DNR” site DAN news, by comparison, showed 18,379 cases and 1,626 deaths. If those numbers were correct, the “LNR” would have managed to suffer just 13 per cent of COVID-19 cases and deaths compared to the “DNR” – although it has a population numbering 63 per cent of its larger neighbour – a discrepancy recently raised by the ostro.org website (for a discussion of population numbers, both real and official, see Newsletter 83).
Another inexplicable detail of the “LNR” statistics is that its overall case number is made up of the number of active cases plus those recovered, while the ”DNR” includes active cases, recoveries and deaths.
As in the “DNR”, schools, universities, theatres, cinemas, bars and restaurants in the “LNR” remained open as of 17 January. The de-facto authorities merely decreed the use of masks, disinfectant, temperature screening and distancing rules. A ban on indoor events, announced on 23 December, was not implemented because of New Year and Christmas celebrations.
The “People’s Republics” are highly vulnerable to COVID-19 because their populations are extremely aged. Officially they boast more than one million pensioners out of a population of less than 2 million.
Vaccine warnings on both sides
In what looked like a last resort, both separatist leaders promised that vaccination with the Russian “Sputnik V” serum would begin soon. “LNR” leader Leonid Pasechnik and “DNR” leader Pushilin published similar declarations on New Year’s eve, saying that the first party will arrive in January. In December Pushilin said that he hoped to receive the vaccine before the year’s end. The “DNR” health “ministry” on 19 January announced the opening of 32 vaccination stations.
Meanwhile, both Ukraine and the separatists warned against taking the wrong vaccine. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on 12 January, that the Russian vaccine should not be used in Ukraine, even if it proved to be medically effective. Kuleba argued that this would be a propaganda victory for Moscow. In Luhansk, separatist ombudswoman Olga Kobtseva warned locals against getting vaccinated in (government-controlled) Ukraine, arguing that nobody can vouch for the safety. To support her advice, Kobtseva claimed that some 15 US biological laboratories operate in Ukraine and that this “raised questions” from local MPs. The existence of American laboratories in Ukraine is a long-standing conspiracy theory that is regularly brought up in Russian state-controlled media.
Ukraine hopes to get its first shipments of the US-German Pfizer/Biontech vaccine in February.
Unilateral prisoner hand over announced
Meanwhile, the separatists announced on 16 January that they would hand over a group of prisoners to Ukraine on a unilateral basis. The move was apparently negotiated by Viktor Medvedchuk, Ukraine’s most prominent pro-Russian politician. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on 18 January that Moscow had supported the talks. No details of the time and the number of prisoners became known immediately.
Earlier in December, Ukrainian ombudswoman Lyudmila Denisova met with her “DNR” counterpart Daria Morozova and discussed the handing over of 300 prisoners detained before the war began in 2014, so that they could continue their sentences in government-controlled prisons. However, Denisova said at the time that such a handover could happen only after the end of the pandemic.
