Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
As the coronavirus crisis worsened, the “People’s Republics” openly admitted negative economic effects, first and foremost in the coal mining sector. Both Donetsk and Luhansk reported surging numbers of infections and the first deaths from COVID-19. While both “republics” canceled planned Victory Parades, their quarantine measures continued to differ. Despite a prisoner exchange just before Orthodox Easter, the Contact Group talks, held via video link, brought no significant progress.
“DNR” cannot sell coal, “LNR” closes pits
In a dramatic about-face, separatist officials openly admitted serious troubles in their coal sector and suggested that help from Russia would not materialize anytime soon. In Donetsk, deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Pashkov said on 10 April that the “DNR” can no longer sell its coal and that the coronavirus pandemic forced it into isolation. “We have to learn to feed, teach, heat and heal ourselves – we have to do everything ourselves”, he told a meeting of plant directors and officials.
In Luhansk, separatist ministers said on 20 April that loss-making coalpits would be closed and that the “LNR” would follow Russia’s experience in doing so, apparently in reference to widespread pit-closures there. How many and which pits the “LNR” will close remained unclear. A law on “the closure of unprofitable coal producers” was passed by parliament and published on separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik’s website on 21 April, but without any explanation in the officially sanctioned media. The Eastern Human Rights Group, a Ukrainian pressure group, said on 22 April that five of the currently 22 mines in the “LNR” will be closed.
The coal industry in both “republics” is believed to have been suffering from low investment for some time. “DNR” Revenue “Minister” Yevgeny Lavrenov said in December that the year 2019 had been “very difficult” for the mining sector. According to official figures, coal output in 2019 was 8 million tons, slightly more than 2018, when it was roughly 7.5 million tons. The Luhansk separatists did not publish figures at all, claiming merely that new coalfaces had been opened, but according to earlier assumptions the “LNR” produces some 8 million tons per year.
In a sign that the situation had direct financial consequences, reports of growing wage arrears were making the rounds. Thus, employees at the Zasyadko mine, one of the biggest in the “DNR”, said on 22 April that they received no money for March.
Restrictions hit the elderly
The quarantine measures introduced by the separatists due to the coronavirus pandemic have immediate effects – alone the closure of the unofficial boundaries with the rest of Ukraine in March prevents hundreds of thousands to pick up their Ukrainian pensions (see Newsletter 73).
The “People’s Republics” have officially more than one million pensioners, a huge share of their population, whose real number is subject to debate but probably not much more than 2 million. In a sign that authorities are expecting significant income losses, “DNR” leader Denis Pushilin decreed on 22 April that fines for the non-payment of communal services should be waived until the end of the year. Earlier, he introduced rent reductions to businesses operating in state-owned properties.
The “People’s Republics” suffer from a large-scale disruption of their supply and demand chains since 2017, when a near total trade ban was imposed between them and the rest of Ukraine. The separatists have since stepped up their rhetoric of integration with Russia both politically and economically, but while Russia is believed to continue to provide financial and military aid, this has not had any wider effects.
Separatist leaders have been conspicuously slow to introduce restrictions, arguing, as Pushilin did on 27 March, that they cannot afford economic shutdowns. While schools and universities were closed, both Donetsk and Luhansk have kept Kindergartens open, and in the “DNR” shops and restaurants remain open during daytime.
First fatal cases reported
However, pressure mounted as the separatists reported the first COVID-19-related deaths. The “DNR” said on 22 April that a 60-year old man had died from the disease. On 24 April, the health “ministry” said that a second man, aged 81, had died. In Luhansk, Health “Minister” Natalia Pashchenko said on 22 April that a 74-year old patient who was infected with the virus had died. She added, however, that the cause of death was a heart attack.
The number of confirmed cases also rose conspicuously. After both “republics” claimed no new cases between 17 and 22 April, they suddenly both reported a jump in numbers late on 22 April – from 21 to 48 in Luhansk and from 36 to 67 in Donetsk. The “DNR” said on 24 April that it had registered four new cases, bringing the overall count to 71, while the “LNR” reported 22 new cases, bringing its count to 70. The sudden spike is most likely explained by a lack of testing over the long weekend surrounding Orthodox Easter on 19 April.
“LNR” closes off more towns
While Donetsk Health “Minister” Olga Dolgoshapko said on 23 April that the “DNR” won’t introduce more restrictions, the “LNR” reacted with a series of lockdowns. On 23 April, the separatist “Government” closed five towns – Alchevsk, Bryanka, Pervevalsk, Stakhanov and Sverdlovsk. It also banned all public transport between towns inside the “LNR”, including taxis, commencing on the evening of 26 April. In addition, the Luhansk State Security “Ministry” said on 22 April that a 5-kilometre-wide zone along the border with Russia could only be entered with a special pass. It was unclear if this was a new rule or an old one that not had been enforced before.
Already on 15 April, the “LNR” had cordoned off Pervomaisk, a frontline town west of Luhansk after at least two locals with “a wide range of contacts” were diagnosed with COVID-19. The often well-informed anonymous Telegram channel “Lugansky Inside” said on 23 April that Luhansk would be cordoned off for 14 days beginning around 30 April. This period includes 1 May, which the separatists usually marked by large May Day festivals and gatherings.
However, two earlier lockdowns in the towns Antratsyt and Krasny Luch (Khrustalny) were lifted when officials found that the measures had had a positive effect. The two mining towns had been cordoned off on 4 April after it emerged that people with infections had been going to work (see Newsletter 73).
The “DNR” only introduced a lockdown on 13 April in the town of Novy Svet, where its biggest source of electricity, the Starobesheve Power Plant, is located. On the same day, the plant’s director, Mark Myagkov, was arrested on embezzlement charges, along with executives of the Energia Donbassa holding. It was unclear, if the two events were related.
Mobile hospital in Donetsk just training?
A local nurse quoted in a 17 April report by US broadcaster RFE/RL said that there was panic among medical workers as the number of infections is rapidly rising and there are shortages of personal protective equipment and of capable doctors. The Donetsk separatists said on 16 April that a local surgeon was being investigated for spreading the virus by neglecting sanitary rules.
In another sign that de facto authorities are trying to prepare for worse, the “DNR” Emergency Situations “Ministry” set up a tent hospital in Donetsk 23 April, but claimed that this was just “an exercise”.
Victory parades canceled
While separatist leaders initially hesitated to cancel the 9 May Victory Day parades for this year’s 75th anniversary, they changed course after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on 16 April that the parade in Moscow will be postponed because of the pandemic. Pushilin said on 17 April that the Donetsk parade would be postponed, too. Luhansk separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik followed suit one day later.
However, both separatist leaders decreed to restore the Soviet names of their “capital” cities during Victory Day and other historic dates – thus Donetsk Stalino and Luhansk Voroshilovgrad.
Ukraine wants border negotiation group
Meanwhile, because of COVID-19, the fortnightly talks of the Minsk Trilateral Contact Group where not held in the Belarusian capital but via videolink. After the 22 April round, Ukraine said that it had initiated the formation of a negotiating group devoted to returning control of the border with Russia to the government.
That initiative looked like a direct reaction to an earlier initiative to form a “Consultative Council”, in which separatist representatives would sit alongside with Ukrainian negotiators, in what Russia and the separatists was a compliance with the Minsk Agreement’s demand for “direct talks” between Kyiv and Donbass representatives. That plan came under heavy criticism from critics of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who argue that this gives undeserved legitimacy to the separatists and that Ukraine should only negotiate with Russia.
While the Minsk “Package of Measures” stipulates that Ukraine shall regain control of the border with Russia only after local elections are held in the non-government-controlled areas, but President Zelenskiy insists that Ukraine must regain control before these elections.
Ukrainian deputy prime minister Oleksiy Reznikov who has been taking a key role in negotiations recently, defended the Consultative Council by arguing that it has no decision-making power whatsoever. In an interview with the Segodnya.ua news site published on 18 April, he said that the Council could only make recommendations to the Contact Group’s political working group, which then makes recommendations to the Contact Group, which in turn makes recommendations to the Normandy Four group of states, France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.
The Normandy Four leaders agreed at a summit in December to meet again by the end of April, however that now seems highly unlikely, even if held via video. Russia insists that a number of conditions set in December must be met, including another disengagement of troops on three more locations, the opening of new crossing points – none of which have been reached so far.
A telephone call between Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on 22 April also seemingly brought no breakthrough.
Four prisoners refused to go to Luhansk
However, the sides managed to agree and conduct a prisoner swap just before Orthodox Easter. 38 people were released and 34 people transferred in the exchange on 16 April, according to figures released by the International Committee of the Red Cross. Thus, the exchange was much smaller than the one in December, when the separatists released 76 prisoners and Ukraine 127 (see our Annual Report 2019, p 9).
According to the sides, the separatists released 20 prisoners – the “LNR” 11 and the “DNR” 9, while Ukraine released 18. Interestingly, four of the prisoners released by Ukraine refused to go to the “LNR”, according to separatist ombudswoman Olga Kobtseva. One of them, a former “LNR” fighter called Dmitry Bizhko, told the startled Kobtseva in front of a camera that he would not return because he was pardoned by Ukraine for having fought against Ukraine, and “we are settled”. Kobtseva later angrily declared that Bizhko was a traitor who acted for “selfish reasons”.
