Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine on 24 February was accompanied by military advances from the “People’s Republics” – recently recognized as “independent states” by Moscow – into government-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, the incursions were limited and relatively slow, resulting in the seizure of mainly small towns and villages within ten days. This is all the more remarkable as the official Kremlin line continue to spin the war as a special operation against (alleged) Ukrainian attacks in Donbas.
The “People’s Republics” as Russian propaganda tools
Having no significant military or economic role to play, the Russian protectorates once again seem to be an asset mainly for the Kremlin’s propagandists. After almost eight years of war manufactured and instigated by Russia and relentless anti-Ukrainian propaganda campaigns, they have been planted into many Russians’ mind as the location of horrible crimes committed by the “Ukrainian regime”, which in turn allowed the Kremlin to utilize them as a pretext for its invasion, which was depicted in state-controlled media as a limited “military operation” in and because of Donbas.
Russian proxies begin to occupy government-held areas
Beginning on 24 February, forces from the “LNR” pushed north across the river Siversky Donetsk. By 27 February, they had taken Stanytsia Luhanska, Shchastia, Krymske, Muratove and Markovke, according to regional governor Serhiy Gaidai.
By 6 March, the Luhansk separatists claimed to have “liberated” more than 100 towns and villages – 14 more than four days earlier – however, many of them – eg Starobilsk and Novopskov – are located north of Sievierodonetsk and may well have been occupied by troops coming across the nearby border with Russia and not directly from the “LNR”. The Luhansk separatist mouthpiece LITs actually reported on 24 February (the first day of the war) that tanks had crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border into the village of Milove.
In the town of Starobilsk, the invaders released “LNR” fighter Andrei Kosyak from prison, according to photos posted on 5 March by the Luhansk-based LITs news site. Kosyak’s detention by Ukrainian soldiers in Zolote in October had served as the pretext for an eight-day blockade of the OSCE Mission in Donetsk by “DNR” protesters (see Newsletter 96).
No welcome for the “liberators”
Like elsewhere in Ukraine, the local population did not greet the self-declared “liberators” with flowers. A video from Starobilsk circulated on social media on 6 March showed locals taking down the “LNR” flag and hoisting the Ukrainian one, while singing the Ukrainian anthem. A day earlier, three unarmed civilians were injured in Novopskov, just north of Starobilsk, when they protested against Russian soldiers, who opened fire against them.
However, the head of the nearby village of Markivka, Igor Dzyuba, in a Facebook post apparently thanked Russia for uniting the Luhansk region – prompting Ukrainian speculations that Dyuba was forced to do so. And in Kremmina, the village council head was apparently shot on 1 March because he had defended pro-Russian positions, according to Ukrainian politician Anton Gerashchenko.
The ”DNR” claimed 67 occupied towns and villages, 36 on 3 March and another 31 on 7 March. Among them are Shirokino, a heavily mined village on the Sea of Azov and Pavlopil, a grey zone village north of Mariupol that has been held by Ukraine since autumn 2015. The fact that practically all of them are in the vicinity of Mariupol suggests that rather than testing the Ukrainian troops stationed in the Donbas, the “DNR” were concentrating its forces near Mariupol and wait for Russian formations to arrive from Crimea.
The Russian Defence Ministry said on 1 March that its forces (dubbed “people’s militia”) had united with Russian troops advancing from Crimea towards Mariupol along the coast of the Sea of Azov, thus cutting off the government troops stationed in Donbas from the sea. The siege of Mariupol was ongoing at the publication of this newsletter.
While there was little information available to corroborate whether these early advances were made by separatist armed formations with or without any significant Russian reinforcements, their limited scale and pace clearly point to the latter. A photo (unverified) posted on 7 March apparently showing “LNR” documents of soldiers captured by Ukrainian troops in the Luhansk region might also support this.
Unsurprisingly, the first ten days of the Russian invasion were accompanied by massive propaganda campaigns in Donetsk and Luhansk, which focused on alleged Ukrainian attacks but also included (unfounded) reports on defections and violent excesses among Ukrainian servicemen.
The road to escalation
The “People’s Republics” were propelled to the world stage on 21 February, when Russian President Vladimir Putin told a security council meeting that he would recognize them as independent states and signed decrees with separatist leaders Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik on the same day in the Kremlin. This step destroyed the Minsk agreement and any hopes of a peaceful settlement.
The only “country” to follow suit was the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia, which recognized both “republics” on 25 February. Unlike South Ossetia, Abkhazia had not formally recognized Donetsk and Luhansk, seemingly because it wanted to be seen as independent also from Russia.
The fact that Pushilin and Pasechnik had traveled to Moscow is just one of many indicators that Putin had been plotting an escalation all along. Three days earlier, the two “Republics” had announced mass evacuations to Russia, claiming that a Ukrainian attack was imminent – and the videos of Pushilin’s and Pasechnik’s announcements were found to have been recorded another two days earlier. When the evacuation was stopped on 24 February, the “DNR” said that almost 100,000 people had been brought to camps in the neighbouring Russian region of Rosotov. The “LNR” said that 60,000 people were brought to Russia.
Little can be said about the future of the “People’s Republics” as Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine remains at an early stage. They will almost certainly aim to control the whole territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions respectively – in line with laws passed in late 2019 that stipulate that the People’s Republics claim the whole territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (see Newsletter 68). The fact that military advances so far have been rather limited suggest that the separatist armed formations – which are thought to be no match for the Ukrainian troops stationed in Donbas – did not immediately get Russian reinforcements and had to wait for Russian forces from Crimea to arrive along the Azov coast, with whom they then began the siege of the port city of Mariupol.
Bleak economic outlook
The prospect of becoming (or rather remaining) Russian protectorates is obviously not appealing, given the massive sanctions regime against Russia. But even without sanctions, the economic fallout of the war is likely to massive by further depleting the already scarcest resource – able and economically active men, as the anonymous Donetskiy Aborigen Telegram channel wrote on 4 March.
