Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
In the run-up to the Russian Duma elections, the separatists trumpeted the participation of local holders of Russian passports as a “signal to the world”. However, it was not clear that – apart from propaganda – voting from the “People’s Republics” would have significant impact. The death toll from the COVID-pandemic continued to rise, and relative figures in the “DNR” are now far higher than Hungary’s, Europe’s hardest hit country.
United Russia Rally in Donetsk
Campaigning for the State Duma elections, which will be held over three days from Friday to Sunday, 19 September, culminated in Soviet style in the “People’s Republics”, with separatist leaders openly calling for voters to join the ruling United Russia party and cast their ballots for it, while no other parties were mentioned.
At a rally held by United Russia in Donetsk on 8 September, local separatist leader Denis Pushilin argued that participation in the Russian elections would bring the “Republic” closer to “the dream” of becoming part of Russia. “This is a message to the world – there are Russian citizens who live in Donbas”, he said. Senior United Russia official Andrei Turchak claimed that the current party programme includes issues that were suggested by voters from the “republics”. A similar message came from Duma MP Vodolatsky during a public event in Luhansk two days later.
The narrative that United Russia, rather than Russia, is the force supporting Donbas has been spun by leading separatists since July. United Russia was the only party present in separatist-controlled media for the past weeks, despite the fact that 14 parties will take part in the elections and that the “systemic” opposition parties like A Just Russia and the Communists have sided much more aggressively with the separatists than United Russia (see Newsletter 91).
United Russia did not bother to hold a separate rally in Luhansk. Instead, a delegation of “LNR” officials joined the Donetsk event. The official “LNR” mouthpiece LITs went into full campaign mode, churning out news reports on a daily basis, where all sorts of people praise the opportunity to vote in the Russian election.
Voter participation probably low – risk for falsification high
Despite the agitation and propaganda, it seems unlikely that the Donbas vote will make any difference to an election whose already shaky legitimacy has been further damaged by the ongoing crackdown against the opposition and independent media in Russia.
While the number of potential voters may be as high as 450,000 (holders of Russian passports above 18, including 221,000 in the “DNR”), it is likely that only a fraction of them will actually participate. The Rostov election commission said on 13 September that some 290,000 people have been registered for online voting, but did not say how many of them were from neighbouring Ukraine. The only time this information was communicated, on 4 August, that number was 2277 of 3835, less than 60 per cent.
Voters from the “People’s Republics” must vote in the Rostov region – either online or in person by traveling there.
For the online vote, the separatists have set up some 400 so-called information centres – officially places where volunteers help voters to register – which are expected to operate as quasi polling stations. For those willing to travel to Russia, the “DNR” and “LNR” are offering free bus transfers to the neighbouring Rostov region throughout the three election days. The Rostov regional election commission published a list of 91 ballot stations that were open for voters without Russian registration, i.e. from Ukraine.
A report by the Ukrainian Realnaya Gazeta news site suggested, that those who did not manage to register online would be bused to Russia. The report also provides detailed evidence that separatist authorities exert considerable pressure on companies and enterprises to motivate their staff and even their relatives to get Russian passports and vote.
An indication of the limited support for United Russia came from party heavyweight Turchak, who told the Donetsk rally that some 4,000 people in both “DNR” and “LNR” had filed membership applications in the two months since campaigning began in July (the party requires members to register as “supporters” for at least six months prior to membership).
Experts point out that the Russian online voting system is riddled with flaws and prone to manipulation due to extremely low transparency. An analysis by Vienna-based scholar Anton Shekhovtsov argues that while Moscow and the separatists have addressed some of the flaws, like making it easier to obtain a Russian insurance policy number (known by its Russian acronym SNILS), only a tiny minority of the local population can be expected to take part in the vote.
A report by the Russian Novaya Gazeta also suggested that voters from Donetsk and Luhansk might be used for “carusel” schemes in the Rostov region, where the same voters cast ballots at numerous polling stations.
Why United Russia cannot open offices
In an incident that was widely picked up by Ukrainian media, Turchak told a woman at the 8 September rally that the party would not open offices in Donetsk and Luhansk – because of legal constraints. Turchak was referring to the Russian law on political parties which stipulates that parties can have offices only on Russian territory – an admission that the “People’s Republics” are not Russia.
Ukraine has called the holding of the vote in Donetsk and Luhansk “a flagrant violation of norms and principles of international law”.
Ukrainian media also pointed out, that Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev appeared in the “DNR” when he attended a ceremony honoring war dead on 8 September. Malofeyev, himself posted about his visit on his vkontakte page, where he called for unification of Donbas with Russia. The businessman, who runs the Marshal Partners investment fund, has been accused of bankrolling the separatists in the early stages of the conflict. He has been under US sanctions since 2014.
Coronavirus death toll rises further
Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic continued with high death toll and no news about further vaccinations.
The “DNR” reported another spike in its weekly death toll which jumped to 200 on 12 September after stagnating at 123 and 126 in the two weeks before. Case numbers were also high and positive rates remained at worrying 30 to 40 per cent, indicating that most cases go undetected. The “DNR”, whose numbers have always been dubiously low, reported 89, 75 and 82 weekly deaths in the three weeks up to 12 September.
As of 15 September, the “DNR” reported a total of 60,871 cases and 4,481 deaths. Based on an assumed population of 1.1 million, this means a cumulative death rate per million inhabitants of 4,073 – already far higher than the 3,124 of Hungary, Europe’s hardest hit country.
Observers link the rise in infections with the 29 August City Day celebrations in Donetsk and the 8 September mass celebrations of the 1943 liberation from German occupation. Further rises may happen because of the State Duma elections. The anonymous “Donbassky Case” Telegram channel claimed on 14 September that the number of patients treated for acute pneumonia (an euphemism for COVID-19) in the “DNR” has risen from 5001 on 8 August to 7257.
The “People’s Republics” have not received vaccine since July 28, when Russia supplied a shipment of the single-component “Sputnik light”. A Russian aid convoy which arrived on 12 August with medical equipment brought no COVID-vaccine.
The separatists have used the pandemic as a pretext to keep their de facto border with the rest of Ukraine largely closed while allowing free travel to Russia – despite the fact that Russia has been experiencing a severe wave of infections since the summer while case numbers in Ukraine have been much lower.
“DNR” blames Ukraine for 11 September explosion
The Donetsk separatists claimed on 11 September that an explosion and ensuing fire in an oil terminal was caused by an explosive device dropped by a Ukrainian drone. The first to make this allegation was Daniil Bezsonov, a deputy “information minister”. Later, “DNR” leader Pushilin joined in by claiming that Ukraine was “using similar terrorist methods as Al Qaeda and chose to do this on 11 September.”
Branding Ukraine a terrorist state has been a long-standing theme of separatist propaganda. However, Ukraine has also used the term extensively since 2014, when it branded its military campaign against the separatists an “anti-terrorist operation” (ATO).
