Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
Amid ongoing economic gloom, separatist leaders painted a bright future for the coming years and claimed that the COVID-pandemic was under control. While official birth statistics revealed a spiraling downward trend, the “DNR” announced rising numbers of Russian passports and the introduction of a Russian-inspired “state ideology”. Russian President Putin also promised to widen Moscow’s help in the future.
Pushilin promises jobs and higher wages
During a questions and answers TV show on 15 December, Donetsk separatist leader Denis Pushilin made rosy promises, saying that industrial production in the “DNR” would rise by 5 billion roubles (60 million euros) in 2021, creating thousands of jobs with higher wages. He added that this would in turn raise tax revenues by 500 million roubles (5.6 million euros).
Industry and trade “minister” Vladimir Rushchak also made some overoptimistic comments when he said on 7 December that the “DNR” would widen its presence on foreign markets in the coming years. However, Rushchak added that Russia was the main partner and added that “important decisions” will be made before the end of the year to boost exports.
The comments come amid what is believed to be the worst economic downturn since 2014 when the “people’s republics” were created (see Newsletter 84). Past attempts by the “DNR” to sell production in a handful of foreign markets have not been met with success, not least because foreign trade partners risk being sanctioned by the US and the EU. Last year, it dispatched a trade delegation to Syria (see our Annual Report 2019, p 7), but apparently to no avail. This year’s COVID-pandemic has stymied such attempts completely.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on 17 December that Moscow would widen its support to Donbass, and not just humanitarian but also in the sphere of “direct cooperation”. Separatist media quickly picked up Putin’s comments, which he made during his annual press conference.
Russian convoy delivers just a fraction of goods
On the same day, Russia sent another convoy, which according to the separatists delivered 19 tons of aid to Donetsk and 23.8 tons to Luhansk. The convoy is only the third this year (in previous years Moscow sent twelve) and the amount of almost 33 tons was significantly less than normal. The previous convoy had brought 115 tons (see Newsletter 83). As with past convoys, Ukraine published a protest note to Russia in which it complains that the convoy breached its sovereignty and could not be inspected by Ukrainian customs.
“LNR” annual coal production projected to fall sharply
Meanwhile, fresh figures suggest a sharp fall in the production of coal, the region’s main export item. The “LNR” said on 15 December that has produced 4.5 million tons since spring. The Luhansk separatists in April closed unprofitable coalmines and combined the remaining in a new “state” holding called Vostokugol. The coal sector reform was accompanied by unprecedented strikes and complaints over wage arrears.
There are no coal production figures from inside the “LNR” between January and April, but separatist officials said at the time that demand had fallen dramatically. According to an investigation by the Ukrainian delo.ua portal, “LNR” total coal production in 2019 numbered about 8.5 million tons, a monthly average of 0.7 million tons. Even if this level continued into 2020, this year’s production can be projected at just around 6 million tons. The “DNR” has not released coal production figures since April.
Vostokugol director Vladimir Shatokhin died suddenly in November, most probably of COVID-19 (see Newsletter 84). Shatokhin’s successor and previous deputy, Konstantin Skrypnik, claimed that miners’ wages were raised by 22 per cent in two steps – by 14 per cent in July and by 8 per cent in October. Reports on anonymous Telegram channels this summer said that some miners had their pay cut in half after their companies joined Vostokugol. A report from 12 December suggested that pay rises were given only to senior miners, while most others receive 11,60 Russian roubles (130 euros) per month.
Pushilin claims COVID is under control
While Russia reported record numbers of COVID-19-related deaths almost every day and the case and fatality numbers in Ukraine also remained high, the “People’s Republics” claimed just a mild rise in cases and – in the case of Donetsk – fewer deaths.
The “DNR” reported 58 deaths and 998 cases in the week before 13 December, 84 deaths and 875 new cases in the week before that and 91 deaths and 808 cases in the week before 29 November. The average rate of 11 deaths per day was thus somewhat lower than in the previous three-week period, when on average 16 people died every day (see Newsletter 84). As of 17 December, the “DNR” had reported 1186 deaths and 13,067 cases.
The “LNR” reported 6 deaths and 45 new cases in the week before 13 December, 10 deaths and 61 cases and 10 deaths and 37 cases respectively in the two weeks before. As of 17 December, the Luhansk separatists claimed 158 deaths and 1,913 infections.
“DNR” leader Denis Pushilin said on his 15 December TV show that the pandemic was “under control” and that the situation “is stable”. A day earlier he said that he hoped to receive deliveries of Russia’s “Sputnik V” vaccine by the end of the year, adding, however, that he could not say which quantities. Separatist officials had said already in October that they hoped to get Russian vaccine, but to no avail (see Newsletter 82).
“DNR” COVID-positive rate at 34 per cent
The separatists’ figures cannot be independently verified and officials in Donetsk and Luhansk have openly admitted that real infection numbers are many times higher because they have insufficient testing capacities. The Donetsk health “ministry” on 15 December reported that 131 or 34 per cent of 381 tests were positive, a positive rate multiple times higher than the recommended 5 per cent.
Ukrainian officials have accused the separatists of massive underreporting. Luhansk region governor Serhiy Haidai even claimed on 15 December that between 70 and 80 per cent of people who arrive from the “LNR” in government-controlled areas are COVID-positive. While this claim could not be corroborated, the numbers communicated by the “LNR” have long been suspiciously low. Thus, in the week before 13 December, the Luhansk separatists reported 45 new cases and 6 deaths. In government-controlled areas, the figures were 862 cases and 23 deaths. Both areas are believed to have a roughly similar number of inhabitants.
“DNR” birth figures continue to fall
Meanwhile, separatist media revealed an ongoing negative demographic trend. The official DAN news site reported on 30 November that 7859 births had been recorded in the “DNR” since January. Assuming a monthly average of 714 births, their number in the whole year will be 8573 – roughly 1,000 less than 2019, when the “DNR” reported 9577 births. This means the continuation of an almost linear downward trend: In 2018 the figure was 10,655 and in 2017 11,895.
A similar downward trend continued in Luhansk, where “LNR” registrars reported 4178 births in the first 9 months of 2020 – meaning a monthly average of 464 and a projected annual total of 5570. That number was about 6,000 in 2019, almost 6,500 in 2018 and 7313 in 2017.
An analysis of birth figures reveals that the real population of both the “DNR” and “LNR” numbers just 1.8 million, less than half of the pre-war numbers (see Newsletter 83).
“LNR” leader Leonid Pasechnik acknowledged an ongoing brain drain, when he said during a public talk on 12 December that barriers to enter state service would be lowered: “Because we face a shortage of qualified candidates, we have to appoint people without professional experience to state civil service,” Pasechnik was quoted as saying, adding that candidates will instead be picked by their level of “patriotism”.
Number of Russian passports rises to more than 350,000
The issuing of Russian passports also continued: Pushilin said on 15 December that almost 200,000 “DNR” inhabitants had received one. The latest “LNR” figure from October said that 150,000 passports were issued, suggesting that the number by now is significantly higher.
Russia began issuing passports under a fast-track scheme to inhabitants of the “Peoples Republics” in the summer of 2019 – much to the chagrin of Ukraine and her western allies. Kyiv announced in November that it will blacklist all its citizens who attempt to enter the country with Russian passports issued under the scheme.
Pushilin announces “Russian Donbass” ideology
Separatist leaders constantly speak of integration with Russia while paying only lip service to the Minsk agreement, which stipulates reintegration with Ukraine. In what seemed another, albeit nebulous step towards official russification, “DNR” leader Pushilin announced on 13 December that the “DNR” would adopt a state ideology called “Russian Donbass”. He added, though, that the details should be worked out by experts and subsequently should be subject to public discussions.
Ceasefire continues to hold Meanwhile both sides largely adhered to the ceasefire, which was reaffirmed in the summer. The Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said in its 30 November Status Report that it recorded 341 ceasefire violations during the past two weeks, compared with 468 in the two-week period before. The Mission also said that it recorded 116 civilian casualties since the beginning of the year, including 21 dead. While this is lower than in the first years of the conflict, the number is higher than in 2019, when the OSCE recorded just 19 civilian deaths.
(update 17.12.2020)
