Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
The COVID-crisis in the “People’s Republics worsened further, with the “DNR” recording the deadliest week since the pandemic began. However, the separatists did not explain the deaths of prominent figures, merely saying that they died of “pneumonia”. The “DNR” postponed the release of census results to next year, prompting fresh speculation about the real number of inhabitants. Moscow continued to issue Russian passports to locals and sent this year’s third aid convoy.
COVID-deaths spike in “DNR”
The Donetsk “People’s Republic” recorded 130 deaths from COVID-19 and 930 new infections in the week up to November 1, a sharp rise from 99 deaths, 665 infections in the previous week and 60 deaths and 722 infections two weeks ago. Three days later, on 4 November the total death toll in the “DNR” had risen by 45 to 623 (this Newsletter had originally erroneously reported a rise of 144).
Official infection numbers stood at 7,204, but the real number is thought to be much higher because testing capacity is very low. The Donetsk health “ministry” said that it carried out 417 tests and got 134 positive results on 3 November – a positive rate of 32 per cent, far higher than the recommended level of 5 per cent. The separatists said in October that they can carry out just 320 PCR tests per day plus another 160 (much less reliable) antigen tests.
In addition to infections, the “DNR” continued to report between 150 and 200 cases of pneumonia per day, believed to be patients who could not be tested. Alone in the week up to 1 November the numbers added up to 1251.
The strong rise in death figures – which more than doubled from 60 to 130 within two weeks – clearly shows that the situation is dramatically deteriorating. On 1 November, the “DNR” health “ministry” announced that the “republic’s” chief intensive care doctor, Natalya Smirnova, had died. Smirnova had been at the forefront of the separatists’ efforts to fight the pandemic. The cause of her death was not disclosed.
Health “minister” Alexander Oprishchenko told separatist leader Denis Pushilin on 20 October that two maternity clinics were being transformed to treat COVID patients amid a shortage of hospital beds. He also admitted that protective gear was in short supply and said that 30 out of then 349 COVID-deaths were medical workers. Oprishchenko added that more than 700 medical students already work in hospitals amid staff shortages.
The separatists again admitted that pharmacies had run out of antiviral medication, with the health “ministry” saying on 27 October that panic buying, hoarding and insufficient supplies had emptied storages.
Composer of “LNR” hymn dies of “pneumonia”
COVID-19-deaths in the “LNR” were also up. According to official figures, 15 patients died in the week until 1 November, more than double than the seven dead reported in the previous week. Infections rose from 116 to 131, according to the health “ministry”. A rare news report on separatist-controlled TV from a hospital in Alchevsk on 1 November gave glimpses of the hardship faced by local doctors, like 24-hour shifts, “colossal workload” and high infection risk.
Among suspected COVID-victims in the “LNR” was singer-songwriter Yury Dersky, who had composed the republican hymn – he died on 5 October – and field commander Alexei Pavlov (“Leshy”), who died on 3 October. Both Dersky and Pavlov officially died of pneumonia.
Separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik said in an address on 22 October that the pandemic’s second wave posed a serious risk to the “People’s Republic” and admitted that there were not enough resources to ensure public health. He added that Russia would send medical aid worth 141 million roubles (1.5 million euros) this month. Pasechnik did not elaborate, but a Russian convoy did arrive in Luhansk one week later (see below).
Despite all this, the separatists re-opened schools on 2 November, after four-weeks of quarantine-related holidays (see Newsletter 81). However, universities continued to teach online and schools in the “LNR” opened only partially, with some of the older pupils learning online, although this has apparently proven difficult or impossible in the past.
“DNR” census results delayed until spring
Apart from doubts about their honesty, the separatist COVID-statistics are hard to compare because there are no reliable population figures. The “People’s Republics” officially claim to have 3.68 million inhabitants (2.25 million in the “DNR” and 1.43 million in the “LNR”), but these numbers are based on 2014 and do not take into account that many people have left since the outbreak of war in 2014.
A census was carried out in October 2019 in both “republics”, but the results, originally promised for this spring, were not released. The “DNR” said on 12 October that they will be published by 31 March 2021. The separatists’ obvious unwillingness to release the figures have prompted speculation that they want to avoid negative publicity about the presumably dramatic loss of inhabitants.
Estimates put the real population well below half the official figures. One, based on birth numbers, suggests an overall number of 1.8 million inhabitants: In 2019, the “DNR” claimed to have recorded 9,577 births. If the local birth rate is assumed to be the same as in Ukraine, with 8.7 births per 1,000 people, this would suggest a population of 1.1 million. For the “LNR”, which claimed 6,000 births in 2019, this calculation suggests a population of roughly 700,000.
The “People’s Republics” are especially vulnerable to the COVID-pandemic because they have one of the most aged populations in the world. Officially, the “DNR” has more than 660,000 pensioners and the “LNR” 400,000, which adds up to more than one million retirees in a population of less than 2 million (see Newsletter 73).
Already more than 320,000 Russian passports
The separatists also released new numbers of Russian passports issued to the local population. “DNR” leader Pushilin said on 4 November that more than 170,000 passports had been issued. “LNR” leader Pasechnik said on 1 October that more than 150,000 Russian passports were issued in his “republic”. Thus, the combined number of Russian citizens stood at above 320,000 – almost 18 per cent of an assumed population of 1.8 million.
President Vladimir Putin decreed in the spring of 2019 to allow holders of “republican” passports to get Russian citizenship fast-track, a decision that has been strongly criticized by Ukraine and its western allies as running counter to the Minsk agreement, which envisions the areas’ reintegration with Ukraine.
New crossing points to open next week
In rare positive news, the sides promised during the Trilateral Contact Group talks on 28 October to open two new crossing points between government-controlled areas and the “LNR” on 10 November. The crossing points in Zolote and Shchastia are expected to greatly improve the life of civilians in the Luhansk region, which only has a single, pedestrian crossing in Stanytsia Luhanska. However, there are serious doubts that the checkpoints would start working immediately. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the checkpoint in Stanytsia remains mostly closed until at least 15 November, while the “DNR” has closed all its four crossing points, opening only the one in Olenyvka on Mondays and Fridays, enabling only a few hundred people to cross.
The Luhansk separatists, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of reneging the crossing point agreement because it would not confirm that Shchastia will be open for vehicles. “LNR” ombudswoman Olga Kobtseva said on 28 October that Kyiv’s negotiator Oleksiy Reznikov had said that Shchastia would be only for pedestrians while Zolote will be open for cars.
The openings were originally agreed during the “Normandy Four” Summit of the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in December in Paris. The sides agreed in March to make them in Shchastia and Zolote.
Third Russian convoy arrives
Meanwhile, Moscow sent another convoy to the “People’s Republics”. The lorries from the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry arrived on 29 October and delivered 65 tons of medical aid to Donetsk and another 50 tons to Luhansk. The convoy was only the third this year, while in the past there have been monthly convoys. In 2019, ten out of twelve arrived weekly, between October and December. While this year’s hiatus is most likely linked to the pandemic and ensuing border closures, neither Russia nor the separatists have explained the mysterious schedules.
Like after past convoys, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry sent a protest note to Moscow, complaining that the lorries had illegally entered Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian officials or international observers have not been allowed to inspect the lorries’ content and Ukrainian activists accuse Russia of using the convoys to smuggle military goods into the areas it controls.
