Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
While the ceasefire has largely been holding, marred only by accusations by the separatists that Ukraine is building illegal trenches, the coronavirus pandemic got worse, according to official separatist statistics. The economic situation also remains dire. Separatist leaders, meanwhile, unveiled busts of field commanders no longer alive.
Number of ceasefire violations remains low
Despite belligerent rhetoric from separatist leaders, the latest additional ceasefire in eastern Ukraine continued to hold much better than previous ones.
The Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said in its status reports that it recorded just 254 ceasefire violations between 24 August and 6 September and 440 violations in the previous two-week period. Before the present truce took hold on 27 July, figures close to 10,000 violations had been the norm for two-week periods. The Mission also said on 7 September that it received no reports of civilian casualties or damage to civilian properties for the sixth consecutive week.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces said on 26 August that during the ceasefire’s first month most frontline positions had recorded no violations apart from “occasional provocations” and that there was not a single casualty from enemy fire.
However, on 6 September a government soldier was killed by rifle fire in the Luhansk region, according to the Ukrainian military. Earlier that day two other Ukrainian soldiers died and another was injured while fighting wildfires along the front in the Donetsk region. Those killed had entered an enemy-laid minefield, according to their commanders.
At the same time the Donetsk separatists stepped up a campaign accusing Ukraine of violating the truce by digging trenches after the ceasefire took hold. On 5 September “DNR” leader Denis Pushilin threatened in a statement that his armed formations would destroy such trenches near Shumy, a location north of the city of Horlivka. Ukraine denied that it had dug any new trenches, something that was seemingly confirmed by the OSCE Mission on the same day, who said that it had observed no changes in the area since 5 July 2020.
However, the Mission reported on 12 September that it had spotted a 5m-long extension to an existing trench belonging to government forces about 1.4km east-north-east of Shumy. It also recorded two such trench extensions by “LNR” armed formations near Kalynove-Borshchuvate.
In an extraordinary meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on 9 September, the sides agreed to conduct an inspection of the site in Shumy the next day. However, that inspection failed to take place and Ukraine accused the separatists of opening fire on the site, while the separatists accused Ukraine of not letting their inspectors pass. On 12 September, the “DNR” armed formations accused Ukraine of renewing trench digging near Shumy.
However, there was no firing or shelling and government forces confirmed on the same day that the ceasefire was holding. The “LNR” armed formations said on 14 September that the calm situation allowed to carry out works for the planned opening of two new crossing points in Shchastia and Zolote as well as repairs at a frontline school.
Tensions because of elections
Ukrainian observers blamed Moscow for the tensions, arguing that the Kremlin was upping the stakes before a possible Normandy Format meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. On 11 September, their political advisers held talks in Berlin. The meeting resulted merely in a reaffirmation of the ceasefire, but Ukraine’s participant, presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak, pointed out that both Heidi Grau, the top OSCE envoy to the Minsk talks and OSCE Chief Monitor Yasar Halit Celik attended such a meeting for the first time.
Another ground for tensions is the issue of elections. Ukraine is planning to hold nationwide local elections on 25 October, but in the resolution for them, the Ukrainian Parliament stipulates that the vote cannot be held in non-government controlled areas “before Russian occupation and armed aggression” has ended and all illegal armed formations have left the country.
The separatists reject this as a violation to the Minsk agreement, which stipulates that elections be held before Ukraine regains control of the areas. This issue has effectively paralyzed the Trilateral Contact Group’s political working group in August and September.
Ukrainian observers, however, suspect that – at least in Donetsk – the separatists are gearing up for holding own elections, judging from separatist leader Pushilin’s recent tours of the “republic” and the opening of new offices for the ruling Donetsk Republic “movement”.
Huge concert in Donetsk despite pandemic
The separatists said little about the coronavirus pandemic, although especially the “DNR” kept reporting relatively high daily infection numbers – 41 on 11 September, 30 and three more deaths on 12 September. As of 13 September, the “DNR” had reported a total of 2,824 cases, including 158 deaths, the “LNR” reported 789 cases and 23 deaths.
Despite rising case numbers, both “republics” opened schools normally on 1 September, and on 8 September the Donetsk separatists staged a free-of charge open air concert by Russian pop singer Grigory Leps in front of some 70,000 fans in the city centre to mark the anniversary of the re-establishment of Soviet control of Donetsk in 1943. The “DNR” had only lifted a ban on mass events in August. A school closure in Horlivka on 10 September following a suspected infection of a staff member was not mentioned by official media.
According to figures released by the separatists, the DNR recorded 133 new cases and 9 deaths in the week up to 11 September (Friday), an average of 19 cases per day. In the previous three weeks these figures were significantly higher – 169 cases and 10 deaths up to 4 September (24 per day), 231 cases and 12 deaths up to 28 August (33 per day) and 190 and 9 deaths up to 21 August (27 per day).
The “LNR” began recording higher numbers than previously in the weeks up to 4 September and 11 September – 66 and 52 respectively. The figures of the previous two weeks were 19 and 12. Official “LNR” media regularly stress that the situation is under control and quote separatist activists as saying that the pandemic just proved the high quality of medical services in the “republic”.
Positivity rate in “LNR” above 5 per cent
The “LNR” said on 28 August that it had carried out more than 11,600 coronavirus tests since the pandemic began in March, and that 659 tests were positive – 5.7 per cent of all tests. This is an indication that testing is too low, because the so-called positivity rate should be below 5 per cent. According to “LNR” chief doctor Dmitry Dokashenko this amounts to an infection rate of 45.8 per 100,000 inhabitants.
However, this calculation is based on the “LNR” official population figure of 1.4 million. The real figure is believed to significantly less, probably below the 1 million mark. Realistic number are not available though, and the separatists have not released the results of censuses which they carried out in both “People’s Republics” in October (see Newsletter 78).
However, the “DNR” kept shut its de-facto border with government-controlled Ukraine, opening a single crossing point only once every Monday. The “border” between both “People’s Republics” apparently also remained shut, despite promises by “DNR” leader to open it.
Economic consequences
It remained unclear, how deep the coronavirus crisis affects the “People’s Republics” already ailing economies. In the “DNR”, the biggest coalmine, Komsomolets Donbassa, remained closed since a fire broke out on 16 August. The separatists said on 2 September that the mine would re-open on 15 September. They also said that the mine had currently more than 3,300 workers, which is 1,200 less than the 4,500 communicated this spring.
The “LNR” announced mine closures in spring together with a widespread “restructuring” in which 56 mines with a total workforce of 30,000 were regrouped into a state-run company called VostokUgol, which did not have to pay previously accumulated wage arrears. While “LNR” official media claimed that the restructuring had led to higher wages, punctual payments and stable production, miners reacted with massive strikes, which were suppressed by joint tactics of some economic concessions and detentions by the infamous state security apparatus (see Newsletter 77).
Those tactics have apparently worked well. The anonymous pro-Ukrainian blogger Jose Pinoche noted on 11 September that the miners’ chat group on the Russian social network Vkontakte, which had actively promoted the strikes had largely fallen silent.
Busts for Bolotov and “Givi”, but not for Plotnitsky and “Motorola”
Meanwhile, Luhansk separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik on 11 September unveiled a bust for Valery Bolotov, who was the first “LNR” leader until his sudden departure in August 2014. Bolotov died in Moscow in January 2017, officially of heart failure, but his wife has alleged that he was poisoned. The bust officially rehabilitates Bolotov, who was rarely mentioned by official media during the reign of his successor Igor Plotnitsky, who led the “LNR” until November 2017, when he was forced to flee to Russia after a coup apparently backed by then-Donetsk separatist leader Zakharchenko. Plotnitsky is thought to be hiding in Russia and is currently barely mentioned by official separatist media.
A bust for Zakharchenko, who was killed by a bomb in August 2018, was erected last year in Donetsk. Next to it the separatists on 25 August unveiled a bust for “DNR” field commander Mikhail Tolstykh, who was killed by a grenade attack in February 2017. Tolstykh, better known as “Givi”, is accused of war crimes and abuse of prisoners. The separatists accuse Ukraine of ordering his killing, an accusation rejected by Kyiv. It is unclear why no bust was erected for field commander Arsen Pavlov, aka Motorola, who was killed in a bomb attack in late 2016.
