Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
Both “People’s Republics” relaxed quarantine rules before military parades planned for 24 June, despite growing numbers of COVID-19 infections. The economic fallout of the pandemic was highlighted when another coalminers’ strike in the “LNR” prompted the separatists to introduce internet blockades and a curfew. The “LNR” again postponed publishing the results of the census held in October 2019.
Quarantine relaxations despite fresh infections
The de-facto authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk lifted key quarantine restrictions despite steadily rising numbers of coronavirus infections. The “LNR” on 10 June allowed shops, restaurants, cinemas and nightclubs to reopen. It also said that sports matches could be held with spectators. On 16 June, free bus rides for elderly were reintroduced and libraries reopened. The “DNR” was more cautious, allowing sports events only without spectators and opening a few venues, like the Donetsk botanical gardens.
The relaxations were not matched by infection numbers. On 18 June, the “DNR” reported 37 new cases and seven deaths within the past 24 hours – the highest daily death toll since the virus officially broke out at the end of March. The overall number of cases rose to 926, including 52 deaths. The “LNR” on 18 June reported a total of 466 cases, including 11 deaths. The Luhansk separatists had not reported any new figures since 6 June, when the numbers stood at 429 and nine deaths.
The total numbers confirmed by the separatists thus stood at 1,392 cases and 63 deaths. Assuming a resident population of 2.5 million, this translates into 57 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, less than Ukraine’s 83 and much less than Russia’s 382. However, compared to the adjacent government-controlled areas of Ukraine, which have a roughly similar population size, the figures from the “People’s Republics” look much less good – as of 18 June, the Donetsk region reported 349 cases and 8 deaths, the Luhansk region just 68 cases and no deaths.
Contact line openings might end hardship
On 18 June the “LNR” finally announced that it was opening the “contact line” with Ukraine the next day – after three months’ closure. However, while “LNR” residents will be allowed to cross into government-controlled areas, non-residents will need to prove pressing family reasons in order to be allowed to travel the other way.
The “DNR” argued that infection rates in government-controlled areas do not allow a full opening. Separatist leader Denis Pushilin said during a televised question and answer show on 17 June that people could be allowed to leave, but those entering the “DNR” should be on humanitarian lists and undergo two weeks of quarantine. Ukraine on 10 June opened two crossing-points, one in Stanytsia Luhanska, the other in Marinka west of Donetsk. However, the separatists refused to let people cross and accused Ukraine of acting unilaterally, leaving dozens of people stranded at closed checkpoints.
The separatists also continued to deny passage to the Monitors of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE). Mission members have been denied passage through the contact line in either direction since late March on the pretext of the quarantine measures.
Before the coronavirus crisis, the crossing points along the contact line were used by up to one million people each month – mainly pensioners from the People’s Republics who needed to register in order to pick up Ukrainian payments on the government-controlled side. The large numbers of people at the crossings also raised fears of coronavirus spreading among elderly patients who are more likely to fall ill.
Parade participants get testing
Despite the risks, the separatists insisted on holding victory parades on 24 June, in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ordered a parade in Moscow that day, the date on which the Soviet Union held its first victory parade in 1945. The “DNR” staged a major parade rehearsal in Donetsk on 18 June with 2,500 men and women, most of them wearing face masks, while the “LNR” held a smaller rehearsal outside Luhansk on 12 June. Both “Republics” said that all participants will be tested for coronavirus.
The separatists had hesitated to cancel their parades on this year’s 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, doing so only after Putin on 17 April cancelled the traditional 9 May parade in Moscow because of coronavirus (see Newsletter 74). While a growing number of Russian regions decided to opt out of the new date in June out of fear over more infections (by 16 June 17 regions had cancelled), this seems no option for Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russian passport-holders to vote in Putin’s referendum
Putin’s rush to stage a parade in Moscow has been explained by his desire to push through a constitutional amendment despite falling ratings amid Russia’s poor performance in the coronavirus epidemic. The amendment would allow him to serve as Russian President for another two six-year terms after 2024. Putin has called a referendum on 1 July in which voters can approve or decline the changes.
The Kremlin leader decreed in 2019 that Ukrainians can get Russian citizenship fast-track if they hold “republican” passports, and by April some 200,000 received passports, according to separatist officials. While both Pushilin and his Luhansk colleague Leonid Pasechnik have called for participation and Russian passport-holders from the “People’s Republics” are likely to vote in favor of Putin (who allowed them to become Russians), it is unlikely that they will make a difference among the 110 million voters. Moreover, participants will have to travel to the neighbouring Russian Rostov region as there will be no polling stations in Donetsk or Luhansk.
The number of Russian passport-holders in the People’s Republics” is set to rise further as the separatists introduced regulations that discriminate those with Ukrainian passports. Thus, “DNR” leader Pushilin decreed on 19 May that holders of Ukrainian passports issued in April 2014 or later must get “DNR”-passports for legal residence and other administrative purposes.
The “LNR” said on 16 June that it will allow people picking up their Russian passports to travel there. The borders with Russia were officially closed in late March.
Miners’ strike ends after wages are paid
The economic fallout of the COVID-19-crisis was highlighted again when the “LNR” took unprecedented steps to suppress the second strike in a coalmine since it announced the “restructuring” of its coal sector in April. On 5 June more than 100 workers in the Komsomolskaya mine in Antratsyt went on strike to demand payment of outstanding wages. In a letter to executives, published by the anonymous “Lugansk Inside” Telegram and Vkontakte account, the miners complained that they had received no payments from March and April. According to “Lugansk Inside”, 128 coal workers took part and refused to return over ground.
As with the previous strike in Sorynsk (see Newsletter 75), official media nowhere mentioned the strike. Moreover, separatist authorities tried to impose a wide-ranging information blockade by cutting off transport and communication links from Antratsyt and another mining town, Rovenki, where local miners had joined the protest: “LNR” chief doctor Dmitry Dokashenko claimed that transport had to be severed because of a spike in COVID-19 infections in these towns. However, the news item on the official LITs news site was published on 8 June at 5am, and in a video address, Dokashenko is seen reading out a statement robot-like, without looking into the camera.
Furthermore, mobile phone communications were disabled. The Ukrainian operator Vodafone said on 9 June that its local transmitters had been cut off from electricity. Outages were also reported for some key internet sites, including YouTube and Vkontakte, the most widely used social network in Russia and the region, as well as the Russian-run pro-separatist news sites “Russkaya Vesna” and “Antifashist”.
The protest grew more desperate on 10 June, when the strikers began to refuse food except bread and water and demanded security guarantees for their families and themselves – apparently prompted by reports of detentions by the infamous “State Security” Ministry. The miners gave up their strike after eight days on 13 June, amid reports that they were promised that their outstanding salaries will be paid. However, the transport restrictions under the pretext of coronavirus were relaxed only on 16 June.
Doubts about the suppression’s success
The protest, while limited in time and size, highlights the precarious stability in the “LNR”, the smaller and poorer of the two “People’s Republics”. While neither local separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik nor any other official and/or media mentioned the strike in public, the main separatist mouthpiece LITs published a string of statements from officials and trade unionists praising the ongoing “reorganization” of the coal sector.
The Soviet-style communications policy prompted (anonymous) commentators to argue that the internet blockades actually made more people aware of the protest and prompted much ridicule, especially when Pasechnik congratulated the very journalists who reported nothing about the strike on their professional holiday on 14 June.
The “LNR” announced a “restructuring” of its coal sector in April, saying that at least five unprofitable mines will be closed and promising new jobs and/or financial compensation to laid-off workers (see Newsletter 74). The Komsomolskaya mine is not earmarked for closure but was transferred from one state holding to another, meaning that workers could no longer claim wage arrears to be paid.
The long-looming economic crisis was exacerbated by the coronavirus outbreak and the oil price crash, both of which hit the Russian economy hard. Since both “People’s Republics” can sell their coal and steel only via Russia, their exports have plunged. Between 2016 and 2019, these exports amounted to 3.5 million tons, according to a 12 June investigation by the Washington Post, but recent Russian customs data suggest that the numbers have fallen dramatically in 2020.
There is widespread concern that pit closures will destroy the economic backbone of many towns, especially in the Luhansk region, where there is little other economic activity. The main metallurgy plant in the “LNR”, the Alchevsk Metals Factory (known by its Russian acronym AMK) reportedly stopped production again on 10 June.
Financial difficulties also in the “DNR”
Payment difficulties are also affecting the “DNR”, where separatist leader Denis Pushilin publicly scolded lower officials for allowing wage arrears. During a televised question and answer show on 17 June, Pushilin ordered energy “Minister” Ruslan Dubovsky to ensure that payments in the coal sector would be made on time. Pushilin did not say where the money should come from but referred to a meeting with scientists one day earlier where he encouraged them to develop new technologies to process coal in order to sell at higher prices.
In a meeting with “government” officials on 9 June, Pushilin ordered Donetsk railway chief Vladimir Kabatsy to see that wages for April and May will be paid, and again asked prosecutors to control the process.
“DNR” Revenue “Minister” Yevgeny Lavrenov said during the show on 17 June that the government was considering tax breaks and tariff reductions in order to support the coal industry and other sectors of the economy.
