Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
The separatists reacted slowly to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the fact that the “People’s Republics” with their ageing population and weak health sector are extremely vulnerable. The lack of coordination between Luhansk and Donetsk shows that Moscow did not bother to give instructions to its client states in Donbas.
Corona Pandemic begins to spread
After the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk claimed for weeks that they had no coronavirus infections, cases began to multiply in early April. “LNR” health minister Natalya Pashchenko said on 5 April that three more people had contracted the virus, bringing the number of cases to four. Pashechnko added that the newly infected had not observed self-isolation and probably spread the virus further at their workplaces. Among them was a Kindergarten worker: “We can only guess the size of (the potential) tragedy,” she said.
The infected all live in Antratsyt and Khrustalny (Kransny Luch), two mining towns south of Luhansk. “LNR” authorities said on 4 April that stringent restrictions of movement had been imposed in both cities. Separatist media reported one day later that Antratsyt had been cordoned off by six checkpoints. In a live interview with “state” TV and radio, Pashchenko warned that the number of cases will grow because of people returning from Russia after losing their jobs there over quarantine measures because of COVID-19.
A similar situation unfolded in the “DNR”, which had only three confirmed cases by 5 April. But among them was a 62-year old man who did not self-isolate after developing a fever and went to work for three more days, health “minister” Olga Dolgoshapko said on 4 April. She added that the man’s family and all his 30 colleagues would be hospitalized. Dolgoshapko’s “ministry” said on 5 April that 14 people had been put under observation during the past 24 hours, seven of them in hospital.
Pushilin claims to be honest with numbers
Ukrainian observers questioned the figures. The Eastern Human Rights Group said on 5 April that to its information there were already 9 confirmed cases in Antratsyt alone. The SBU intelligence service even said one day earlier that already 13 people had died of COVID-19 in the “LNR”. On that day, Ukraine had officially recorded 32 fatalities of the disease.
The separatists denied that they were withholding information. “We are not going to hide the truth. Under a pandemic gripping the whole world that would be completely inappropriate,” “DNR” leader Denis Pushilin said in an interview published on 3 April.
While the separatists did not say how much tests they were conducting, they reported a doubling of people in self-isolation. According to the “DNR” health “ministry”, as of 5 April 12,551 people were in quarantine at home, another 131 in hospital. A week earlier, the “DNR” said that 635 people were in quarantine, 103 of them in hospitals.
Reluctant Restrictions
The first coronavirus infection was confirmed on 28 March by the “LNR”, the “DNR” followed on 31 March. By comparison, Ukraine and Russia recorded their first cases in the first week of March. In between, life in the “People’s Republics” continued more or less normal for a whole month.
The “DNR” introduced mandatory quarantine for people returning from countries with corona outbreaks on 14 March. The measure covered those entering from government-controlled areas of Ukraine but excluded Russia, where many inhabitants of the “People’s Republics” work. Moreover, it is unclear whether self-isolation was effectively controlled.
Mandatory quarantine for everyone entering the “DNR” was only introduced on 27 March. Checkpoints with government-controlled Ukraine were gradually closed – on 17 March for those without “DNR” residency, from 21 March onwards for everybody. Also closed were border crossings with Russia. (Russian citizens with registration inside Russia were allowed to exit the “DNR” again on 23 March.)
Schools and universities were closed on 19 March – three days after Russia and a whole week later than Ukraine. On the same day, the “DNR” banned sports events and closed cinemas and theatres. The “LNR” waited another eleven days until it introduced restrictions: On 30 March, the same day when Moscow introduced a full lockdown, schools and universities, restaurants, non-food shops and sports facilities in Luhansk were ordered to close completely.
In the “DNR”, by contrast, restaurants and cafes remain open until 6 pm, according to measures announced by separatist leader Pushilin on 2 April (they also include a mandatory curfew for all inhabitants over 65 years old). The “DNR” Interior “Ministry” said on 5 April that police had within three days handed down more than one million roubles (12,000 euros) in fines to violators.
The “LNR” restrictions were both harsher and came into force immediately after government meetings on 27, 30 and 31 March, giving businesses and the public almost no time to prepare. In a sign that this caused considerable confusion, the government published corrections and extra explanations, and even the official LITs news site was late to announce that bars and restaurants had to close on 28 March and did not cancel its daily listings of pub games, bowling and ice rinks for 29 and 30 March.
Unlike in the “DNR”, where separatist leader Pushilin defended the measures in two video addresses, “LNR” leader Leonid Pasechnik kept his trademark low profile. After inspecting a hospital in Luhansk on 25 March he only published a message on Twitter on 1 April in which he ordered to distribute aid to people in self-isolation.
Checkpoints closed also for the OSCE Mission
Traffic was also restricted between both “republics”. According to Ukrainian media reports, the “DNR” on 26 March began to let only people registered in the Luhansk region into the neighbouring “LNR”. On 27 and 29 March respectively, the “LNR” halted bus and rail services with the “DNR”, apparently without telling passengers. An official announcement by the Luhansk Transport Ministry only appeared on 31 March. On 1 April, the DNR announced the closure of one of its two border crossings with the “LNR”.
The “LNR” also closed its only crossing-point with government-controlled Ukraine, at the footbridge in Stanytsia Luhanska, on 23 March, and one day later six minor border-crossing points with Russia were closed. But the three road checkpoints with Russia remained open.
Caught in the closures was the Organization for Security and Co-operation’s (OSCE) Monitoring Mission, whose members were denied passage to and from the “People’s Republics” between 21 and 23 March and 3 April. Despite protests by Ukraine, Germany, France and the United States, neither the separatists nor Russia made public comments on this.
On April 3, the OSCE Mission said that its patrols were allowed to enter the “DNR” at two checkpoints, one from the LNR”, but with considerable delays of 3.5 and four hours respectively. The Mission had said on 1 April that it was temporarily relocating some of its staff from non-government-controlled to government-controlled areas due to health risks.
Weak economies and overaged populations
The separatists’ reluctance to introduce restrictions cannot be explained by the late arrival of confirmed coronavirus infections. More likely their leaders were aware that the “People’s Republics” cannot cope with large-scale economic shutdown. Donetsk separatist leader Pushilin admitted on 3 April that local factories had not stopped working because the consequences of a full-blown outbreak would be more serious for the “DNR” than for other countries.
However, both “People’s Republics” face a formidable dilemma, because they are extremely vulnerable to a pandemic that disproportionately affects the elderly. More than one million of their probably less than 2.5 million inhabitants are officially pensioners (662,000 in the “DNR” and more than 400,000 in the “LNR”), because people of working age have left in search of better incomes. Pensioners are already badly affected by the checkpoint closures because they can no longer travel to government-controlled areas to pick up Ukrainian pensions, with which they top up their “republican” pensions of at least 4,800 roubles (58 euros).
The spread of the pandemic in Russia and Ukraine is now forcing many of the latter to move home, which in turn raises the risk of infections. The public health sector is in disarray, and local officials have openly complained that low wage levels are fuelling brain drain. “DNR”-leader Pushilin admitted again on 3 April that there is a shortage of medical workers. Health “ministers” Dolgoshapko (“DNR”) and Pashchenko (LNR) said last year that each “republic” has a shortage of approximately 5,000 doctors (see Newsletter 53).
Few positive economic figures, Industry minister sacked
The dire shape of the “DNR” economy was demonstrated on 17 March, when key “ministers” gave accounts of the past year during the annual “government hour” in the Donetsk “Parliament”. One of the few positive figures was proclaimed by Revenue “Minister” Yevgeny Lavrenov who said that 2019 saw a 6.7 per cent increase in budget revenue – but did not reveal figures of the traditionally secret budget.
A telling speech was delivered by Trade and Industry “Minister” Eduard Armatov, in which he – at least in the publicly available version – did not give any useful figures about the key metals industry, saying merely that output in steel and flux showed “positive dynamics”, while the other sectors declined. Armatov did say that chemical industry production rose by 6.7 per cent but added that pharmaceutical production declined by 20 per cent.
Armatov’s performance presumably failed to impress the “republican” leadership as he was sacked and replaced by his deputy Vladimir Rushak two days later.
Consultative Council put on hold
The coronavirus crisis also overshadowed the Trilateral Contact Group talks in Minsk. During the round held by videoconference between 24 and 26 March negotiators did not finalize the controversial formation of a Consultative Council, which had triggered harsh criticism in Ukraine. Oleksiy Reznikov, a Ukrainian deputy prime minister, said on 25 March that an agreement about the Council won’t be signed as long as negotiations are held in online format and that further consultations with France and Germany were necessary.
The council, dubbed earlier “Advisory Board” by the OSCE, is supposed to bring together 20 civil society representatives, ten appointed by the Ukrainian government and ten by the separatists. It would then advise the Contact Group’s Political Working Group. Critics in Ukraine and among its allies argue that this would give too much legitimacy to the separatists (see Newsletter 72). The next round of negotiations is scheduled from 6 to 8 April.
“DNR” claims 1,000 applications for Russian passports per day
Meanwhile, the “DNR” said that demand for Russian passports remains high among its inhabitants. According to the separatist “migration service” there are 1,000 applications per day and this number has not gone down since the coronavirus pandemic, the DAN news site reported on 2 April. The report said that 93,885 passports had been issued already – almost 20,000 more than the 74,716 passports reported on 11 February.
The LNR” said on 28 March that more than 90,000 of its inhabitants have received Russian passports, meaning that the overall number in both “People’s Republics” is now close to 184,000. Despite the “LNR” being much smaller, the numbers are relatively higher because the Luhansk separatists began issuing their own “passports” in 2015, one year earlier than the “DNR”.
However, the Luhansk separatists have been slower than their Donetsk neighbours in many other policies. Thus, an “LNR” parliamentary committee on 25 March gave preliminary approval to a bill that would remove Ukrainian as a second state language from the constitution. The “DNR” had taken this step on 6 March (see Newsletter 72).
