Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
Even after it became official, the separatists and their media kept silent about the resignation of Vladislav Surkov, their key Moscow “curator” for the past six years. Their leaders Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik did not show up in public amid fresh speculation that they might be replaced soon. There was mixed news from the economy while the State Security “Ministries” continued to publish disturbing “confessions” of arrested spies. Unlike in Georgia, the separatists imposed no restrictions because of the Coronavirus outbreak.
Pushilin and Pasechnik no shows on Fatherland Defender Day
In Donetsk, “DNR” leader Denis Pushilin did not appear in public since attending the premiere of a film by Russian videoblogger Semyon Pegov on 22 February – even skipping the “Defender of the Fatherland Day” celebrations the next day, for which he merely published a statement on his website.
Pushilin’s “LNR” colleague Leonid Pasechnik also posted just a statement on Defender of the Fatherland Day, but chaired a meeting with activists of his ruling Peace for Luhansk party on 25 February. That meeting made headlines in Ukrainian media after a report about it was deleted from the website of the separatist “21st Century” newspaper. The reason was unclear, but in his speech Pasechnik apparently accused “LNR” police of smuggling drugs. The police are controlled by Interior “Minister” Igor Kornet, who is widely seen as Pasechnik’s main rival inside the “LNR”.
Pushilin’s and Pasechnik’s future was thrown into doubt after Russian President Vladimir Putin on 18 February officially decreed the removal of Vladislav Surkov from his post as presidential aide. Surkov had announced in late January that he would leave the state service because the Kremlin was changing its policy vis-a-vis Ukraine – one day after Putin appointed Dmitry Kozak – a Surkov rival – as a deputy head of the Kremlin administration and tasked him with the Ukraine portfolio.
Surkov stressed in an interview published on 26 February that his departure was “completely voluntarily” and claimed that he felt “alienated” from the (Kremlin) system that he himself had created.
Replacement rumours
It is widely believed that Surkov personally managed the “People’s Republics”, picking loyalists like Pushilin for key political positions – although Kozak was responsible for the economic management, causing significant rivalry with Surkov (see our Annual Report 2019, p. 5).
Unsurprisingly then, there was fresh speculation about an imminent removal of both separatist leaders from their jobs. Already before Surkov’s official ouster, anonymous Telegram channels speculated that former Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov would replace Pushilin and former Ukrainian Interior Minister Vitaly Zakharchenko replace Pasechnik. Other rumours focused on the arrival of Russian inspectors in Donetsk and Luhansk, apparently investigating possible embezzlement of funds.
However, similar speculation has been spread in the past without being confirmed. While neither Pushilin nor Pasechnik are assumed to have significant popularity, from Moscow’s point of view they arguably performed reasonably well over the past months and removing them immediately poses risks to stability because that would entail widespread purges of separatist officials loyal to them. In fact the past year was characterized by efforts to integrate separatist factions by giving jobs to formerly exiled leaders (see our Annual Report 2019, p 4-5).
At least one rumour was actually refuted – about the removal of “DNR” Prime Minister Alexander Ananchenko. On 14 February the “government” published a speech by Ananchenko on the anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, leading Ukrainian media to assume that the secretive Prime Minister was back in office after he missed a 5 February meeting with Pushilin, during which his deputy Vladimir Pashkov was called “acting Prime Minister” (see Newsletter 70). According to the government website, Ananchenko has been signing decrees throughout the year.
Wage arrears at Vneshtorgservis
Both Ananchenko and Pashkov are thought to represent Vneshtorgservis, the secretive holding company that has controlled key industrial assets in both “People’s Republics” since their seizure in 2017. Unconfirmed reports said that workers at Vneshtorgservis plants have not been paid for months.
The anonymous “Lugansk Inside” Telegram channel claimed that workers at the Alchevsk Metal Factory, which is controlled by Vneshtorgservis, stopped working on 13 February after they had not received any pay this year (apparently wages for December were being paid out piecemeal in February). However, the same source claimed on 29 February that wages for January had been paid to the Alchevsk workers and those working in Vneshtorgservis plants in the “DNR”.
More “confessions” for espionage
The People’s Republics also continued their practice of arresting civilians on spying charges and showing “confessions” in YouTube videos online without any due judicial procedures and/or giving them to long prison sentences after closed trials.
The “LNR” State Security “Ministry” alone published four videos of suspicious confessions between 27 January and 26 February. Among them was a mother of eight who claimed that she had been trying to convince separatist fighters to switch sides and a man from Luhansk apparently suffering from schizophrenia. The latest video, published on 26 February, showed a local University worker who was sentenced to 12 years for espionage.
The “DNR” paraded two suspects on video, one of them a man identified as Pavel Podvezko, who according to a 11 February report was sentenced to 14 years in prison for passing on sensitive information to the anonymous pro-Ukrainian account “Necro Mancer”. Also arrested were two drivers who offered rides across the Contact Line into government-controlled areas. One of them said that he worked for Ukrainian intelligence under the pseudonym “Harry potter”, while the other, identified only as “A”, got a 5-year prison sentence for “terrorism”, according to the “DNR” Prosecutor General’s Office.
No closures because of Corona
The separatists also seized on the Coronavirus crisis, which gripped Ukraine since 20 February, when angry locals attacked a group of evacuees from China. In a typical propaganda report, the “DNR” claimed on March 1 that a Ukrainian soldier was hospitalized with an “unspecified infection” in Mariupol.
However, unlike the separatist regions of Georgia, the “People’s Republics” did not close any of its borders. On 27 February, South Ossetia said that it was closing all crossing points with Georgia proper, while Abkhazia said a day earlier that it was banning all travel for non-Russian citizens.
