Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
The appointment of more Russian officials to government posts and a massive campaign for a “referendum” in the “People’s Republics” were the latest indicators that Moscow has already decided to annex these East Ukrainian territories and that the recognition of “DLNR” by North Korea is just a passing episode. Meanwhile casualties among local recruits remained very high.
“DNR” gets four more “ministers” from Russia
In another clear sign that Moscow further increases direct control over the “People’s Republics”, the “DNR” announced on 2 July that another four “Russian specialists” had been appointed to head key “ministries”. Most importantly, the revenue “ministry” was given to Dmitry Shmelev, a former tax inspector in the neighbouring Russian province Rostov-on-Don.
That “ministry” is key for controlling incoming funds and was associated with massive corruption under Pushilin’s predecessor Alexander Zakharchenko, who was assassinated in 2018. Its longtime head Yevgeny Lavrenov was dismissed in March and replaced by a little-known local customs official (see Newsletter 103).
The appointment of Russian nationals signals low trust in local elites, especially in times when large-scale funds are expected to flow from Moscow into the rebuilding of the region.
The three other “ministries” now headed by Russian nationals are education, health and energy. The new education “minister” Olga Koludarova used to work in the education ministry of her native Udmurtia (a region in central Russia) before moving to the federal ministry in Moscow in 2018. Health “minister” Dmitry Gartsev used to be deputy health minister on the Pacific island of Sakhalin and had previously worked in the federal health ministry in Moscow. Energy “minister” Andrei Chertkov had been a district chief and energy minister in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region.
Pushilin also appointed Dmitry Kurashov, a former official in the south Russian Stavropol region, to deputy communications “minister”.
The “DNR” leader claimed that the staff changes were necessary for future deeper integration with Russia: “The need for a faster transition to the Russian legal sphere and to the Russian model of state administration demands new competences from heads of government agencies. Therefore, we invited experienced Russian managers to head a number of ministries”, he said.
Earlier in June, the “DNR” already got a “Prime Minister” and three senior officials from Russia. As of 1 August, the “DNR” officially boasted nine Russians in key “government” positions – “Prime Minister” Vitaly Khotsenko and deputy Prime Minister Yevgeny Solntsev, four cabinet “ministers” and two deputies. In addition, former Ulyanovsk deputy governor Alexander Kostomarov has been appointed one of Pushilin’s key aides.
“Prime Minister” Khotsenko, a former official in the Russian Industry and Trade Ministry, had promised on 15 June that all other cabinet “ministers” would keep their positions after Pushilin had fired the whole government (see Newsletter 103). However, on 27 June, Pushilin reconfirmed just five of them – including the influential and secretive State Security “Minister” Vladimir Pavlenko and Interior “Minister” Alexei Diky. This leaves all remaining “ministers” a risk of being demoted or fired in favour of appointees from Russia – all four “ministers” replaced on 2 July were downgraded to first deputy “minister”.
LNR has only four Russians
By contrast, the “LNR”, which often gets less attention from Moscow, officially had just four officials from Russia – a first deputy Prime Minister, two deputy “ministers” and Education “Minister” Ivan Kusov. A university rector and former deputy governor of Sevastopol on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula, Kusov was named Education “Minister” on 8 July. Like Khotsenko, Kusov had won the “Leaders of Russia” contest, which is chaired by Sergei Kirienko, the senior Kremlin official in charge of the occupied Ukrainian territories.
Earlier, Russian education ministry official Pyotr Ishkov was appointed deputy “LNR” Education “Minister” and Vasily Noskov, a United Russia party official from Novosibirsk was appointed deputy “LNR” Culture “Minister”.
Education is key to Moscow’s tactics
Both the “ministries” affected and the Russian appointees’ backgrounds reveal a lot about Moscow’s tactics for exerting future political control over the “People’s Republics” and the other occupied territories in Ukraine: By placing trusted and/or effective party managers in key positions that oversee education and youth policies. The education “ministries” are key for this and are now headed by Russians in both Donetsk and Luhansk, with an extra deputy “minister” in Luhansk.
This is also consistent with Russian officials’ announcements that Moscow is not planning to give up the conquered regions again. While schools and universities in both Donetsk and Luhansk have been subject to creeping Russification over the past years, this is now likely to speed up significantly. In Luhansk, the new Education “Minister” and his Russian deputy announced on 21 July that the “LNR” will adopt Russia’s new general education system.
In the “DNR” the new “Minister” Olga Koludarova made a similar announcement, and “Prime Minister” Khotsenko argued that “getting closer to Russia” meant that Russian norms needed to be implemented as soon as possible.
Campaign for “referendum” in Luhansk, but not in Donetsk
The packing of local governments with Russian officials is of course a very clear sign that Moscow is planning to annex the “People’s Republics”. The separatists have been talking about a “referendum” on joining Russia since the beginning of the war but said recently that this will be held only after an end of Russia’s “Special Military Operation”.
While it is unclear when this could be and what exactly constitutes it, a prominent “DNR” figure hinted that this could be when the whole Donetsk region has been conquered. Mikhail Kofman, a former “Foreign Minister” who now heads the “public chamber”, said on 27 July that a referendum could be held in mid-September because military leaders expect the Donetsk region to be fully “liberated” from Ukraine by the end of August. Earlier speculation had focused on 11 September, when Russia is due to hold regional elections.
Despite relentless Russian artillery shelling, the Ukrainian military continues to hold significant parts of the Donetsk region, centered around the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
The situation differed markedly in the Luhansk region, which has been more or less fully controlled by Russian and Russian-led forces since Ukraine withdrew from the city of Lysychansk in early July. Two weeks later the “LNR” began preparations for a “referendum headquarters”, which was duly set up on 25 July. Despite a “warning” by prominent “LNR” figure Alexei Karyakin that such a poll should not be held before the Donetsk region’s “liberation”, the separatist mouthpiece LITs began a massive propaganda campaign for holding a “referendum” about joining Russia.
North Korea recognizes the “People’s Republics”
In a somewhat ironic twist, North Korea recognized the “People’s Republics” as independent on 13 July – which it confirmed one day later. Pyongyang is only the third UN member to do so after Russia and Syria. Before 21 February, when President Vladimir Putin announced the recognition, only the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia had recognized Donetsk and Luhansk. Abkhazia, the other Georgian breakaway region, only followed suit on 25 February, presumably under duress from Moscow, on whose subsidies the Black Sea province heavily relies on.
The recognition was first reported by the “DNR” Foreign Ministry, which posted a photo showing its new Moscow envoy Olga Makeeva and North Koreas Ambassador to Russia on its Twitterfeed. The unannounced and non-public ceremony took place just one day after the “DNR” mission was opened in an office centre in the Russian capital – without fanfare.
The “LNR” however did not open an embassy, despite the fact that its “Ambassador” Rodion Miroshnik boasted in May that this could be done “within a week”. Instead, the news about North Korea’s recognition was communicated only in a short Telegram post by separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik.
Moscow might save some money by allowing just one embassy: If Russia annexes the “People’s Republics” soon enough, the recognition deal with North Korea might be the only meaningful thing to happen in the “Embassy” before it is demoted a Russian region’s representation.
Heavy death toll continues
Meanwhile, the war continued to take a heavy toll among soldiers from the “People’s Republics”, where – unlike in Russia – forcible mass recruiting has been taking place since February, when a general mobilization was imposed in both Donetsk and Luhansk.
“DNR” Ombudswoman Daria Morozova reported that 2,460 of its servicemen and -women were killed by 28 July and another 10,339 injured. This amounts to a monthly death toll of 213 and another 886 injured (the numbers from 30 June were 2,247 killed and 9,453 injured) – high figures considering that the “DNR” forces probably number somewhat more than 10,000 (more than half of the combined separatist forces of 20,000) and that its population is believed to be just 1.2 million (see our Annual Report 2021, p 8).
The ”LNR” did not release any meaningful casualty numbers.
Multiple reports suggest that the coerced recruitments result in badly trained forces with low morale, which were nevertheless sent to the hottest fighting locations like Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk (see Newsletter 100). More recent media reports suggest that an unknown number of Russian soldiers who refused to fight in Ukraine are being held in cellars in the LNR-controlled city of Brianka, where they face abuse and torture if they do not return to their units.
British hostage dies
“DNR” Ombudswoman Morozova also made headlines when she declared on 15 July that British citizen Paul Urey had died in captivity. Urey had been diagnosed with chronic illnesses, including diabetes, respiratory and kidney failure and several cardiovascular illnesses, Morozova said in a statement. “Given these diagnoses and the stress, he died on July 10,” she said.
Morozova also claimed that Urey was a “professional soldier” who had been recruiting and training for the Ukrainian military and that he had been detained after he tried to break through a “DNR” checkpoint.
However, British officials and his family stressed that Urey had been an aid worker in Ukraine. He was apparently already in detention when the “DNR” sentenced two other British citizens and one Moroccan man to death in June (see Newsletter 103). Those sentences have not been carried out so far. Also in custody remain at least three local staff members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation’s (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission, who were detained after 24 February under the pretext that they had been spying for Western countries. The OSCE has denounced their continued detention and demanded their release.
Ombudswoman silent on deaths of Ukrainian prisoners
In what seems like a grave Russian war crime, more than 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed on 30 July in a prison camp in Olenivka, a town just south of Donetsk. “DNR” officials blamed the Ukrainian military for the incident, claiming that the camp had been hit by rockets from US-provided HIMARS launchers. According to the Russian Defence Ministry, 50 people were killed and 73 injured.
Speaking on Russian state TV, “DNR” leader Denis Pushilin spread the Russian version that Ukraine had deliberately targeted the camp in order to prevent soldiers from Ukraine’s Azov formation to make confessions in subsequent trials. He said that 193 people had been in the camp at the time of the shelling.
However, it is very hard to believe that Ukraine would take the extreme step of killing its own soldiers just because they might have to confess uncomfortable truths in Russian-orchestrated trials. Apart from that, experts and the US government collected lots of indicators that make those claims seem spurious – and suggest that the camp had been deliberately burned.
Curiously, “DNR” Ombudswoman Morozova did not comment on the incident.
