Written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
Fears of an imminent Russian military offensive in Donbas were allayed somewhat by indications of manpower shortages. The “People’s Republics” continued to act contrastingly when it comes to revealing their military losses while they acted in tandem by kidnapping local OSCE staff members amid a standoff about the Mission’s status after its mandate expired.
Forces of “DNR” and “LNR” smaller than thought
Two weeks after Moscow’s decision to withdraw its troops from Kyiv and to redeploy them in Donbas, Russia continued attacking government-controlled cities, including civilian targets like Kramatorsk railway station, where more than 50 people were killed by a rocket on 8 April. However, a major Russian offensive against Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation in the region had not materialized and the “People’s Republics” did not claim to control more territory than two weeks earlier.
Experts predicted that this would change only after the fight for Mariupol was over because Russia had not enough troops at its disposal. US military analyst Michael Kofman, who has predicted much of the conflict correctly over the past months, said in a podcast released on 11 April, that Russia faced a serious shortage of troops in Donbas, especially infantry. He added that the separatists’ forces probably numbered only between 10,000 and 15,000 before the present conflict and that this number had been boosted to just “20,000 plus” thanks to the massive forced mobilization drive that began on 19 February.
These numbers are well below those previously communicated by Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian General Serhiy Nayev said in December 2018, that separatist troops number some 21,000 plus 11,000 Russians. In May 2021 Nayev said that the separatists had 28,000 fighters – without specifying if this included Russian servicepeople.
The separatist “People’s Militias” are organized as two separate army corps – one in Donetsk and another in Luhansk. In what is close to an admission of factual Russian command, the “People’s Republics” do not have defence ministries (the “LNR” never had one and the “DNR” Defence Ministry was quietly disbanded in 2018 – see our Annual Report 2018, p 9). Command and control of the formations lies with the Russian Eighth Combined Arms Army, based across the border in Russia’s Rostov Region and apparently set up especially for the war in Donbass.
Kofman argued that while Russia has far more heavy weapons, tanks and fighting vehicles than Ukraine, it lacks manpower – especially infantry – because Putin has shied away from a full mobilization and a declaration of war. Ukraine’s situation is the opposite in that it has enough troops but a shortage of fighting kit.
Russia’s in many ways spectacular underperformance even prompted Igor Girkin, the Russian agent who started the war in 2014 by occupying Sloviansk with a group of armed men and later became the first “DNR” Defence Minister, to praise Kyiv: “Sadly I am seeing that the Ukrainian command is doing a better job from a military point of view than the Russian one”, he said in a video interview published on 30 March.
Own losses revealed in Donetsk but not in Luhansk
While the „People’s Republics“ undoubtedly remained under tight control from Moscow, they markedly differed from each other in their treatment of military casualties. While the “LNR” stuck to its longstanding policy of not reporting any own casualties – the daily “People’s Militia” briefings only talk about the Ukrainian side – the “DNR” reported own losses on a regular basis.
Donetsk military spokesman Eduard Basurin’s daily briefings were carried by the official DAN news site, in which he admitted a total of 40 killed fighters between 1 and 13 April. Basurin did not say where the losses happened, but Mariupol was practically the only place of active fighting in this period. The reports were accompanied by obviously vastly inflated claims of Ukrainian losses – between 78 and 98 per day – and defections (Basurin claimed on 1 April that 513 Ukrainians had switched sides), but even “DNR” leader Pushilin engaged in public mourning when he awarded a medal to the widow of a fallen officer on 13 April.
There were also rumours that the Kremlin preferred recruits from the “People’s Republics” for risky operations because casualties from there would affect public opinion in Russia to a much lesser extent.
The “DNR” also set up a “State Defence Committee”, which it claimed was modelled on the extraordinary committee set up by the Soviet Union in 1941. During the body’s first session on 4 April, separatist leader Pushilin announced “denazification laws”, claiming that this was necessary to root out “manifestations of neonazism and nationalism”.
“LNR” eying new “citizens”
Meanwhile, the separatists began to expand their administrations into newly “liberated” areas. The “LNR” said on 6 April that it had opened offices offering social payments in five settlements of the Luhansk region, including Starobilsk and Stanytsia Luhanska. Luhansk separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik said on 13 April that he expects the “Republic” to gain up to half a million new inhabitants – and claimed that “LNR” had 1.4 million inhabitants before 24 February. However, the real number is much lower, probably below 1 million – see our Annual Report 2021, p. 8.
Separatists openly threaten OSCE staff
The “People’s Republics” also issued serious threats against staff of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM) and abducted one Mission member in Donetsk and Luhansk respectively.
The first abduction became known on 8 April, when the “DNR” said that it had detained an OSCE employee for alleged “illegal activities”. The next day, Donetsk separatist leader Pushilin declared the Mission illegal and its members undesirable”, adding that all of its staff would have to leave by 30 April.
The “LNR” followed suit with a three-day lag, typical for decisions taken in Moscow rather than locally, when its State Security “Ministry” said on 11 April that it detained an SMM staffer on suspicion of treason. “LNR” leader Pasechnik said on 14 April that the SMM would be banned after 30 April and claimed that the Mission had never helped to solve the conflict.
The OSCE began evacuating its international staff of more than 800 from all over Ukraine in February, but left equipment and many of its almost 500 national staff behind. The Mission’s mandate expired on 31 March because Moscow vetoed its annual extension. While most participating states argue that the Mission is now in an “administrative mode” as long as negotiations over a future redeployment continue, Russia has argued that it must cease to exist immediately.
On 4 April, Russian blogger Semyon Pegov published a photo showing a member of the Russian “Wagner” mercenary group standing outside the Donetsk Park Inn hotel, where the Mission’s local team has been headquartered since 2014.
