written by Nikolaus von Twickel
Summary
The “People’s Republics” spoke about holding referenda about unification with Russia – but only after the “liberation” of the whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian-led military advances into their government-controlled areas has been excruciatingly slow, as the ongoing siege of Mariupol binds a lot of forces. Ukrainian authorities raised alarm about the deportation of civilians to Russia.
Pasechnik talks about referendum to join Russia
“LNR”-leader Leonid Pasechnik said on 27 March that a referendum would be held soon about the Republic’s accession to Russia. It was the first time that a separatist official announced such a step since 2014 and was almost certainly initiated by Moscow. However, Pasechnik clarified later the same day that no referendum will be held before the “liberation of our territories” (i.e. the war) was over and that he had just expressed his personal opinion.
The fact that there was no such announcement from the “DNR” and that observers, including a senior Russian Duma deputy, argued that it was too early to hold a referendum, makes it likely that Pasechnik’s announcement was a test for public opinion. “DNR-leader Denis Pushilin said two days later that the issue of joining Russia will be raised “after the liberation of the whole republic”.
The “People’s Republics” have controlled approximately half of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions since 2015, but claim that their whole territories belongs to them – in line with laws passed in late 2019 (see Newsletter 68). Russia’s recent announcement to significantly reduce its forces around Kyiv and Chernihiv has led experts to believe that the war will now be centered in Donbas.
Referenda about joining Russia would mirror the poll held in Crimea on 16 March 2014, which was internationally condemned for being conducted in the presence of Russian troops. That referendum was followed by independence declarations of Crimea and Sevastopol, formal prerequisites for annexation, which happened on 18 March.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the “People’s Republics” as independent on 21 March, three days before the invasion, and foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin talked about their “accession to Russia” in a gaffe earlier that day that served as a pretext for Putin to publicly humiliate his longtime ally. While recent sociological surveys suggest that pro-Russian political views have strengthened recently, there is little doubt that polls or referendums will yield desired outcomes, given the Republics’ near-complete totalitarian nature.
“LNR” claims control over much of Luhansk region
However, with heavy fighting raging for Mariupol and continued Russian bombardment of Sievierodonetsk and neighbouring towns, any talk of referenda seemed moot. The “LNR” claimed by late March to have “liberated” up to 80 per cent of the territory of Luhansk Oblast. Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to President Zelenskiy, said on 29 March that Ukraine controls just 25 per cent of the region. Russian forces largely occupied the region’s scarcely populated Northeast, while the region’s main urban agglomeration around Sievierodonetsk, the temporary seat of the regional administration, remained under Ukrainian control, despite repeated and indiscriminate Russian bombardment.
In Donetsk Oblast, where Russian-led forces pushed West towards the administrative boundary with Zaporizhzhia after taking the town of Volnovakha in late February, Ukraine still holds 40 per cent, according to Arestovych.
Reports about “filtration camps”
As more and more civilians fled the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian authorities raised alarm bells about “filtration camps” and deportations to Russia. The Ukrainian foreign ministry said in a 24 March statement that about 6,000 residents of Mariupol had been “forcibly deported to Russian filtration camps in order to use them as hostages and put more political pressure on Ukraine”.
Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said on the same day that Russia had set up a filtration camp in Dokuchayevsk, a city between Mariupol and Donetsk. The camp’s aim was to identify combatants (both former and present) and Ukrainian law enforcement officials, the report said.
A report by the Ukrainian Novosti Donbassa news site published on 29 March quotes relatives and friends of victims from Mariupol as saying that they have been brought to Russia and forced to work in labour camps. Ukraine’s Ombudsman Lyudmyla Denisova said that victims were transferred to remote places like the Russian Arctic or the island of Sakhalin, off the Pacific coast. Her office said that deportees were forced to hand over telephones and documents beforehand.
Separatist and Russian media did report that more than 7,000 locals from Mariupol were brought to the “DNR” and further to Russian regions, but called them refugees. In an interview with Russian state TV, “DNR” leader Pushilin called Ukraine’s accusations of deportations a “sick and cynical lie” and claimed that refugees can choose themselves where to go. However a lengthy report from Mariupol published on 28 March by the Donetsk official DAN news site openly mentions “filtration of Nazis” right in the headline. A “DNR” fighter quoted in the text explains that Ukrainian soldiers (“Nazis”) regularly dress up as civilians in order to leave the combat zone – suggesting that the Russian forces are “filtering” combatants and non-combatants. The text did not provide any information how that is done.
However, videos from Mariupol showed Chechen fighters (named “Kadyrovtsy” after Chechen authoritarian leader Ramzan Kadyrov) forcing unarmed men in Mariupol to publicly denounce “Banderovtsy” (a term for Ukrainian nationalists coined after wartime partisan leader Stepan Bandera) and praise Ramzan’s father Ahmat (Kadyrov).
Also, a 30 March report by the independent Russian news site Zona Media alleges that Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) interviewed Ukrainian refugees under duress and pressured them to make up stories about “Azov war crimes,” before distributing videos of the interviews to Russian media with a warning not to disclose their original source. Ukraine’s Azov Battalion, which is based in Mariupol, has long been accused of being made up of far-right wingers.
Doubts about the separatist formations’ combat effectiveness
The armed formations of the “People’s Republics” take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but there is little reliable information about the quality of their contribution. Many reports, however, dwell on unfair and indiscriminate recruitment in both Donetsk and Luhansk. A 12 March story in Russia’s Novaya Gazeta alleges that many students were subjected to an almost universal draft, while Ukraine’s Ombudswoman Denisova said on 21 March that the separatists were drafting men up to 65 years of age in order to fill their ranks.
The effects of this on military morale was starkly visible in a viral video that got more than 1.4 million views after it was posted on an anonymous Telegram channel on 28 March. In the footage, a group of conscript soldiers inside a lorry complain that they were sent to a combat zone (in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region) without adequate training and equipment. Another video from the Donetsk region shows captured “DNR” fighters saying that they are teachers from Horlivka who were suddenly called up for military service.
Suspicion about the separatists’ armed formations’ poor state was apparently confirmed in another video from Mariupol, in which “DNR” war reporter Gennady Doubovoi complains that while Ukraine’s Azov Battalion is well-equipped with western high-tech vision and communication gear, “DNR” fighters even have to buy their own uniforms.
