The COVID-crisis in the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics worsened further, with the \u201cDNR\u201d recording the deadliest week since the pandemic began. However, the separatists did not explain the deaths of prominent figures, merely saying that they died of \u201cpneumonia\u201d. The \u201cDNR\u201d postponed the release of census results to next year, prompting fresh speculation about the real number of inhabitants. Moscow continued to issue Russian passports to locals and sent this year\u2019s third aid convoy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
COVID-deaths spike in \u201cDNR\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Donetsk \u201cPeople\u2019s Republic\u201d recorded 130 deaths from COVID-19 and 930 new infections in the week up to November 1, a sharp rise from 99 deaths, 665 infections in the previous week and 60 deaths and 722 infections two weeks ago. Three days later, on 4 November<\/a> the total death toll in the \u201cDNR\u201d had risen by 45 to 623 (this Newsletter had originally erroneously reported a rise of 144).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Official infection numbers stood at 7,204, but the real number is thought to be much higher because testing capacity is very low. The Donetsk health \u201cministry\u201d said<\/a> that it carried out 417 tests and got 134 positive results on 3 November \u2013 a positive rate of 32 per cent, far higher than the recommended level of 5 per cent. The separatists said in October that they can carry out just 320 PCR tests per day plus another 160 (much less reliable) antigen tests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition to infections, the \u201cDNR\u201d continued to report between 150 and 200 cases of pneumonia per day, believed to be patients who could not be tested. Alone in the week up to 1 November the numbers added up to 1251.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The strong rise in death figures \u2013 which more than doubled from 60 to 130 within two weeks – clearly shows that the situation is dramatically deteriorating. On 1 November, the \u201cDNR\u201d health \u201cministry\u201d announced<\/a> that the \u201crepublic\u2019s\u201d chief intensive care doctor, Natalya Smirnova, had died. Smirnova had been at the forefront<\/a> of the separatists\u2019 efforts to fight the pandemic. The cause of her death was not disclosed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Health \u201cminister\u201d Alexander Oprishchenko told<\/a> separatist leader Denis Pushilin on 20 October that two maternity clinics were being transformed to treat COVID patients amid a shortage of hospital beds. He also admitted that protective gear was in short supply and said that 30 out of then 349 COVID-deaths were medical workers. Oprishchenko added<\/a> that more than 700 medical students already work in hospitals amid staff shortages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The separatists again admitted that pharmacies had run out of antiviral medication, with the health \u201cministry\u201d saying on 27 October that panic buying, hoarding and insufficient supplies<\/a> had emptied storages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Composer of \u201cLNR\u201d hymn dies of \u201cpneumonia\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n COVID-19-deaths in the \u201cLNR\u201d were also up. According to official figures, 15 patients died in the week until 1 November, more than double than the seven dead reported in the previous week. Infections rose from 116 to 131, according to the health \u201cministry\u201d<\/a>. A rare news report<\/a> on separatist-controlled TV from a hospital in Alchevsk on 1 November gave glimpses of the hardship faced by local doctors, like 24-hour shifts, \u201ccolossal workload\u201d and high infection risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among suspected COVID-victims in the \u201cLNR\u201d was singer-songwriter Yury Dersky, who had composed the republican hymn \u2013 he died on 5 October \u2013 and field commander Alexei Pavlov (\u201cLeshy\u201d), who died on 3 October. Both Dersky and Pavlov officially died of pneumonia<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik said in an address<\/a> on 22 October that the pandemic\u2019s second wave posed a serious risk to the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republic\u201d and admitted that there were not enough resources to ensure public health. He added that Russia would send medical aid worth 141 million roubles (1.5 million euros) this month. Pasechnik did not elaborate, but a Russian convoy did arrive in Luhansk one week later (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite all this, the separatists re-opened schools<\/a> on 2 November, after four-weeks of quarantine-related holidays (see Newsletter 81<\/a>). However, universities continued to teach online and schools in the \u201cLNR\u201d opened only partially<\/a>, with some of the older pupils learning online, although this has apparently proven difficult or impossible<\/a> in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cDNR\u201d census results delayed until spring<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Apart from doubts about their honesty, the separatist COVID-statistics are hard to compare because there are no reliable population figures. The \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d officially claim to have 3.68 million inhabitants (2.25 million in the \u201cDNR\u201d<\/a> and 1.43 million in the \u201cLNR\u201d<\/a>), but these numbers are based on 2014 and do not take into account that many people have left since the outbreak of war in 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A census was carried out in October 2019 in both \u201crepublics\u201d, but the results, originally promised for this spring, were not released. The \u201cDNR\u201d said on 12 October<\/a> that they will be published by 31 March 2021. The separatists\u2019 obvious unwillingness to release the figures have prompted speculation that they want to avoid negative publicity about the presumably dramatic loss of inhabitants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Estimates put the real population well below half the official figures. One, based on birth numbers, suggests an overall number of 1.8 million inhabitants: In 2019, the \u201cDNR\u201d claimed to have recorded<\/a> 9,577 births. If the local birth rate is assumed to be the same as in Ukraine, with 8.7 births per 1,000 people<\/a>, this would suggest a population of 1.1 million. For the \u201cLNR\u201d, which claimed 6,000 births<\/a> in 2019, this calculation suggests a population of roughly 700,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d are especially vulnerable to the COVID-pandemic because they have one of the most aged populations in the world. Officially, the \u201cDNR\u201d has more than 660,000 pensioners and the \u201cLNR\u201d 400,000, which adds up to more than one million retirees in a population of less than 2 million (see Newsletter 73<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Already more than 320,000 Russian passports<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The separatists also released new numbers of Russian passports issued to the local population. \u201cDNR\u201d leader Pushilin said on 4 November<\/a> that more than 170,000 passports had been issued. \u201cLNR\u201d leader Pasechnik said on 1 October<\/a> that more than 150,000 Russian passports were issued in his \u201crepublic\u201d. Thus, the combined number of Russian citizens stood at above 320,000 \u2013 almost 18 per cent of an assumed population of 1.8 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n President Vladimir Putin decreed in the spring of 2019 to allow holders of \u201crepublican\u201d passports to get Russian citizenship fast-track, a decision that has been strongly criticized by Ukraine and its western allies as running counter to the Minsk agreement, which envisions the areas\u2019 reintegration with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n New crossing points to open next week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In rare positive news, the sides promised during the Trilateral Contact Group talks on 28 October<\/a> to open two new crossing points between government-controlled areas and the \u201cLNR\u201d on 10 November. The crossing points in Zolote and Shchastia are expected to greatly improve the life of civilians in the Luhansk region, which only has a single, pedestrian crossing in Stanytsia Luhanska. However, there are serious doubts<\/a> that the checkpoints would start working immediately. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the checkpoint in Stanytsia remains mostly closed<\/a> until at least 15 November, while the \u201cDNR\u201d has closed all its four crossing points, opening only the one in Olenyvka on Mondays and Fridays<\/a>, enabling only a few hundred people to cross.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Luhansk separatists, meanwhile, accused Ukraine of reneging the crossing point agreement because it would not confirm that Shchastia will be open for vehicles. \u201cLNR\u201d ombudswoman Olga Kobtseva said on 28 October<\/a> that Kyiv\u2019s negotiator Oleksiy Reznikov had said that Shchastia would be only for pedestrians while Zolote will be open for cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The openings were originally agreed during the \u201cNormandy Four\u201d Summit of the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia in December in Paris. The sides agreed in March to make them in Shchastia and Zolote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Third Russian convoy arrives<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, Moscow sent another convoy to the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d. The lorries from the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry arrived on 29 October and delivered 65 tons of medical aid to Donetsk<\/a> and another 50 tons to Luhansk<\/a>. The convoy was only the third this year, while in the past there have been monthly convoys. In 2019, ten out of twelve arrived weekly, between October and December. While this year\u2019s hiatus is most likely linked to the pandemic and ensuing border closures, neither Russia nor the separatists have explained the mysterious schedules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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