Written by Nikolaus von Twickel<\/p>\n
Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n New rumours about the fate of Kremlin \u201ccurator\u201d Vladislav Surkov raised questions over Russia\u2019s policies vis-\u00e0-vis the \u201ePeople\u2019s Republics\u201c, just as the separatists prepared to celebrate the fifth anniversary of their existence. Meanwhile, Moscow\u2019s decision to distribute Russian passports is getting closer to be implemented as local inhabitants began submitting applications for Russian citizenship. In Luhansk, another \u201cminister\u201d vanished after being sacked.<\/p>\n Fresh rumours about Surkov<\/strong><\/p>\n Kremlin aide Vladislav Surkov, believed to be the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d chief architect, became the target of yet another information campaign when numerous social media posts suggested that he would no longer oversee Russia\u2019s policies over Donbass.<\/p>\n The campaign began on 30 April, when Alexander Zhuchkovsky, a Russian writer and former volunteer fighter, wrote on Twitter<\/a> that Surkov had been ousted as \u201cchief Curator\u201d for \u201cDNR\u201d and \u201cLNR\u201d. \u201cThis time really\u201d, he added, because similar rumours had been launched before. Zhuchkovsky suggested that Surkov\u2019s job might be given to Mikhail Babich, a longtime Kremlin official who had been fired as Russian Ambassador to Belarus the same day.<\/p>\n On 2 May Zhuchkovsky tweeted<\/a> that Babich had\u00a0 been appointed as Surkov\u2019s successor (\u201cas expected\u201d) and on 5 May he claimed<\/a> that Babich had already left for Donetsk. On the same day the rumour was also spread by Ukrainian activist Vera Iastrebova, who heads the Eastern Human Rights Group and said on Facebook<\/a> that Babich had arrived in Donetsk to meet with separatist officials.<\/p>\n The WarGonzo Telegram Channel, which is operated by Russian blogger Semon Pegov, said later<\/a> on May 5 that Babich had not yet arrived\u00a0 in Donetsk but that separatist leader Denis Pushilin was in Moscow for \u201cconsultations in the Kremlin. The rumours also spread to Luhansk, were a Telegram channel and a Twitter account, both of them anonymous, claimed<\/a> that separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik was about to be replaced by his chief of staff Olga Bass.<\/p>\n However, none of this was confirmed. Instead, the separatist-controlled DAN news site said<\/a> on 11 May that Surkov issued a congratulatory statement to the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d on the fifth anniversary of their controversial \u201creferendums\u201d.<\/p>\n Surkov has been the subject of speculation before, especially in 2018, when Russian President Vladimir Putin waited three months to reappoint him as a Kremlin aide. Russian media have speculated that Putin and\/or senior members of his administration want to replace Surkov because they are unhappy with the state of affairs in the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d (see Newsletter 33<\/a>).<\/p>\n While the rumours about Surkov may just reflect unhappiness with him among his enemies in Moscow, one significant staff change did occur in the Kremlin: The head of the Presidential Administration\u2019s department responsible for eastern Ukraine, Oleg Govorun, resigned in April<\/a> and was replace by his deputy Alexei Filatov. The Kommersant newspaper reported<\/a> that Govorun left for \u201cfamily reasons\u201d, but other media reports suggested that both his department\u2019s and Surkov\u2019s influence in the Kremlin was being significantly cut back (see Newsletter 54<\/a>).<\/p>\n In another indication that Surkov\u2019s fortunes are going down, his allies in Moscow, first and foremost political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, were silent this time. Only Konstantin Dolgov, a Moscow-based blogger who has supported Pushilin and Surkov in the past, came out with a blog post<\/a> claiming that Surkov was \u201cso far\u201d in charge of the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d.<\/p>\n Few foreigners attend fifth anniversary celebrations in Donetsk and Luhansk<\/strong><\/p>\n Meanwhile, Donetsk and Luhansk saw a string of political celebrations marking May Day, Victory Day, and the fifth anniversary of the 11 May 2014 referenda. Called \u201cRepublic Day\u201d, the anniversary celebrations kicked off in Donetsk on 11 May, attended<\/a> by the same handful of foreign visitors as in previous years: South Ossetian de-facto president Anatoly Bibilov, Abkhazian de-facto Prime Minister Valery Bganba and \u201cLNR\u201d leader Leonid Pasechnik. A group of supporters from western Europe was given medals and letters of thanks during a meeting<\/a> with \u201cDNR\u201d Foreign \u201cMinister\u201d Natalia Nikonorova.<\/p>\n \u201cDNR\u201d leader Denis Pushilin gave<\/a> Pasechnik an order of friendship and the two together presented<\/a> a set of commemorative stamps. In a first, Pushilin took to the stage with a guitar and performed<\/a> a song called \u201cRussia – Motherland\u201d.<\/p>\n South Ossetia, a Russian-controlled breakaway region of Georgia, is the only territory that has recognized the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d so far. Abkhazia has not done so, as has Russia. As in past years, Moscow sent no government officials but members of both houses of parliament to Donetsk and Luhansk.<\/p>\n On May 12, celebrations<\/a> were held in Luhansk with Bibilov, Pushilin and Abkhaz de-facto Foreign Minister Daur Kove. With Bibilov, \u201cLNR\u201d leader Pasechnik exchanged<\/a> the ratification documents of a friendship treaty signed last year. Foreign \u201cMinisters\u201d Vladislav Deinego and Dmitry Medoyev signed<\/a> an agreement on establishing diplomatic relations, almost five years after June 2014, when South Ossetia recognized the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d as independent states. The agreement apparently allows the existing<\/a> representative offices<\/a> to become embassies.<\/p>\n The \u201cDNR\u201d announced<\/a> last year that it plans to open an embassy in South Ossetia, but this has not happened. Pushilin said in an interview<\/a> published on 1 February that there was a \u201ctechnical delay\u201d and that embassies would open later this year.<\/p>\n Russia begins passport campaign<\/strong><\/p>\n Meanwhile, separatist de-facto authorities said that they have begun accepting applications for Russian passports. The \u201cDNR\u201d said on 7 May<\/a> that applications can be handed in at all 33 offices of its Migration Service.<\/p>\n The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) confirmed<\/a> that people were queuing up in both non-government-controlled parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions on 7 May. However, people in \u201cLNR\u201d-controlled Antratsyt told the OSCE observers that they were waiting to receive information about obtaining Russian passports and not in order to submit applications.<\/p>\n The \u201cLNR\u201d began<\/a> accepting applications in Luhansk on May 6 and said<\/a> that applications will be accepted outside Luhansk on May 13.<\/p>\n Russian President Vladimir Putin decreed on April 24 that holders of \u201cDNR\u201d and \u201cLNR\u201d passports can obtain Russian citizenship on a fast-track basis \u2013 a move that was widely seen as a reaction to comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy winning the Ukrainian presidential election (see Newsletter 55<\/a>).<\/p>\n The move was widely condemned in Ukraine and the West. Writing for the Jamestown Foundation, US analyst Vladimir Socor said<\/a> that Russia effectively \u201cannexes the population, still without acknowledging the territorial annexation, but cementing it.\u201d<\/p>\n How many inhabitants of the \u201cPeople\u2019s Republics\u201d will accept Russian citizenship will be an important indication of the population\u2019s political leanings, as has been the case with separatist-issued passports. Available figures suggest that only a fraction of the local population have accepted \u201cDNR\u201d and \u201cLNR\u201d citizenship\u201d. The \u201cDNR\u201d said<\/a> in November that almost 250,000 \u201cpassports\u201d have been distributed, some 15 per cent of the assumed population of just under 2 million.<\/p>\n Assuming that Russian passports are part of a \u201chearts and minds\u201d campaign by the Kremlin, Ukrainian activists have claimed that few people will demand them. Thus, the Eastern Human Rights Group said on May 10<\/a>, quoting information obtained from separatist authorities, that just seven per cent of pensioners and less than a third of the local population are likely to apply. Priority will be given to members of the armed formations, security services and local officials, the group said. This was seemingly confirmed by photos spread on Twitter<\/a> that showed notices at a Donetsk Migration Service office saying that applications will be accepted only from members of those professions.<\/p>\n There are also clear capacity limitations. The \u201cLNR\u201d said<\/a> that it can process up to 3,000 applications per week. This means that no more than 156,000 passports can be issued per year. Given that the \u201cLNR\u201d has an estimated population of more than one million, it would take more than six years to provide all inhabitants with Russian passports.<\/p>\n \u201cLNR\u201d minister vanishes<\/strong><\/p>\n In the \u201cLNR\u201d another \u201cminister\u201d was fired without warning. Industry \u201cMinister\u201d Dmitry Bozhich was replaced<\/a> by Yuri Govtvin, formerly a deputy Interior Minister, on April 30. Bozhich, who had been sacked already by former \u201cLNR\u201d leader Igor Plotnitsky in February 2017, was reappointed after Leonid Pasechnik ousted Plotnitsky in a coup in November 2017. In one of his last public appearances<\/a>, Bozhich oversaw the distribution of flour with a government-imposed price ceiling.<\/p>\n As with previous staff changes, \u201cLNR\u201d controlled media did not mention<\/a> Bozhich, the fact that he was sacked or the reason, when they reported the new minister\u2019s appointment. Bozhich is the second minister to simply vanish from public view since Pasechnik formed a new government after winning the November 11 \u201celection\u201d. In January<\/a>, transport minister Vladimir Gerasimchuk was replaced with Alexander Basov, a former deputy in the State Security \u201cMinistry\u201d, which was headed by Pasechnik before November 2017. Gerasimchuk had been made responsible<\/a> for the failure to clean roads after heavy snowfalls this winter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Written by Nikolaus von Twickel Summary New rumours about the fate of Kremlin \u201ccurator\u201d Vladislav Surkov raised questions over Russia\u2019s policies vis-\u00e0-vis the \u201ePeople\u2019s Republics\u201c, just as the separatists prepared to celebrate the fifth anniversary of their existence. Meanwhile, Moscow\u2019s...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[244,245],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1763"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1763"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1763\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1767,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1763\/revisions\/1767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}