Written by Nikolaus von Twickel<\/p>\n
Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n Wiretapped conversations released by Ukraine\u2019s intelligence agency back the theory that the killing of separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko was organized by people in Moscow and Donetsk involving his Kremlin-backed successor Denis Pushilin. Both Pushilin and Luhansk leader Leonid Pasechnik are unlikely to face serious challengers in the November 11 \u201celections\u201d.<\/p>\n Was Zakharchenko\u2019s assassination planned in Antalya?<\/strong><\/p>\n The Ukrainian intelligence service SBU published three recordings in relation to Zakharchenko\u2019s August 31 assassination and the ensuing purge of his allies. The key recording, released on September 27<\/a>, is an excerpt from a four-hour long talk between three men held in a restaurant in the Turkish resort of Antalya in June 12. The SBU said that one of them is Alexander Lavrentyev, an aide of Denis Pushilin, who then served as Speaker of \u201cParliament\u201d.<\/p>\n In the five-minute recording, the man identified by the SBU as Lavrentyev mentions the necessity \u201cto remove Zakharchenko without elections before September\u201d. Zakharchenko was killed by a bomb blast on August 31.<\/p>\n The other two men were not identified but are thought to represent either the Kremlin or Russian security services. That fact that one of them is heard as saying \u201cZakharchenko is supported by Surkov\u201d may indicate that Zakharchenko\u2019s assassination was ordered by a Kremlin faction opposed to Vladislav Surkov, who as President Putin\u2019s chief aide for eastern Ukraine is responsible for Moscow\u2019s policies vis-\u00e0-vis Donetsk and Luhansk. Surkov has ostensibly backed Pushilin as Zakharchenko\u2019s successor.<\/p>\n An analysis<\/a> of the recording by Ukrainian journalist Serhiy Garmash concludes that the decision to remove the \u201cDNR\u201d leader was made because political compromise was impossible with Zakharchenko. Garmash speculates that the aim could be a peacekeeping force, which is currently being debated at the United Nations\u2019 General Assembly, which lasts until 5 October 2018.<\/p>\n However, while Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko made another call<\/a> for such a mission when he addressed the Assembly on February 20, no progress is in sight. Ukraine and her allies insist that peacekeepers must be deployed throughout the separatist-held areas including along the border with Russia. Moscow, by contrast, wants a force only along the \u201cContact Line\u201d that divides the separatists from government-controlled areas.<\/p>\n Lavrentyev, who according to the SBU is a Kazakh citizen, says in the recording that his initial responsibility has been to provide security (to Pushilin). Garmash speculates that Moscow sent him to Donetsk in 2014 to protect Pushilin. The separatist leader was the target of two failed assassination attempts in June 2014.<\/p>\n The SBU said that it \u201cobtained\u201d the recordings but did not say from whom and how. Anatoly Nesmiyan, a prominent Russian blogger, speculated<\/a> that the recording came from Turkish intelligence services.<\/p>\n Khodakovsky and Strelkov suggest the audio is authentic<\/strong><\/p>\n However, two prominent former separatist commanders suggested that the recordings are authentic. Alexander Khodakovsky, the founder of the \u201cVostok\u201d brigade, said in a September 27 Vkontakte post<\/a> that Lavrentyev had been careless when discussing such sensitive plans: \u201cHe let a leak happen that put everybody in an embarrassing position,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Later the same day, Igor Girkin, the Russian FSB veteran who was first \u201cDNR\u201d Defence \u201cMinister\u201d in 2014, said that he had confirmation that the recording was real and that Lavrentyev had indeed worked closely with Pushilin. \u201cI suppose that Pushilin\u2019s team knew that \u2018certain things\u2019 would happen to Zakharchenko in September,\u201d Girkin, who is known by his nom de guerre Strelkov, wrote on Vkontakte<\/a>.<\/p>\n Trapeznikov discussed Timofeyev\u2019s sacking<\/strong><\/p>\n Three days earlier, on September 24, the SBU published<\/a> recordings of two phone calls made by initial interim leader Dmitry Trapeznikov on the evening of September 6, one day before he was replaced by Pushilin.<\/p>\n In the first call, Trapeznikov tells Zakharchenko\u2019s adviser Alexander Kazakov that Surkov is about to make a decision about the separatist leadership at a meeting in Moscow. In the second call, Trapeznikov talks to Pushilin about the imminent sacking of Zakharchenko\u2019s powerful deputy Alexander Timofeyev and Kazakov\u2019s possible detention.<\/p>\n Pushilin sacked Timofeyev on September 7, shortly after being elected interim leader by \u201cparliament\u201d. But while Trapeznikov accepted defeat and endorsed Pushilin,<\/a> Timofeyev and Kazakov fled to Moscow, where they remain to this day. Timofeyev has been accused of large-scale corruption in official separatist media. After the SBU release, Kazakov wrote on Facebook<\/a> that over coffee in Moscow he and Timofeyev laughed about the recording and suggested that it was fake.<\/p>\n Russian TV report parades \u201cUkrainian agent\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n On September 30, Russian state TV news programme \u201cVesti Nedeli\u201d broadcast a report from Donetsk<\/a>, in which a handcuffed prisoner claims that he was part of an SBU-trained group which in 2016 killed field commander Arsen Pavlov (\u201cMotorola\u201d) and later plotted to kill Zakharchenko \u2013 a plan that was foiled by the separatists. The prisoner, identified as a local called Alexander Pogorelov, then suggests that another SBU-trained group carried out the successful attack on August 31 \u2013 with an American-made bomb.<\/p>\n Pogorelov has been paraded before on Russia\u2019s \u201cZvezda\u201d channel (see Newsletter 43<\/a>) and his \u201cconfession\u201d is just as dubious as previous ones published by the separatist \u201cState Security Ministries\u201d (MGB). However, the \u201cVesti Nedeli\u201d report showed exclusive surveillance camera footage of the blast, which makes it clear that the organizers must have had privileged access to the Caf\u00e9 \u201cSepar\u201d because the bomb was hidden in the entrance\u2019s ceiling (earlier reports suggested that it was in a lamp). This and the fact that the report\u2019s author does not address the question how this could have been achieved by a purported Ukrainian group, strongly points to an \u201cinside job\u201d.<\/p>\n Waning hopes for competition at \u201celections\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Meanwhile, it looked more likely that Denis Pushilin won\u2019t face any serious competitors in the November 11 leadership \u201celections\u201d. The last prominent opponent, Pavel Gubarev, faced pressure from authorities, but managed to hand in the necessary signatures for is candidature on September 30. It was unclear when the Election Commission will decide on whether to accept them or not.<\/p>\n On September 29, Gubarev said<\/a> that his wife, Katya Gubareva, had disappeared and was not answering calls. Hours later, she reappeared, but only after a convention of Svobodny Donbass, the nominal opposition movement went ahead without her.<\/p>\n Gubareva explained<\/a> that she had been summoned for questioning and that she had been told that the convention would go forward without her. She did not say who summoned her and who questioned her. \u201cAfter her release she \u201cended up with D. Pushilin,\u201d she wrote, without elaborating.<\/p>\n Gubareva, who served as the Donetsk separatist \u201cForeign Minister\u201d in 2014, has been an MP for Svobodny Donbass since November of that year. However, she seems to enjoy only partial support and enough delegates were ready to attend the convention and approve the candidate list without her. The \u201cDNR\u201d Election Commission said on September 30<\/a> that the list had been passed without violations. The website of Svobodny Donbass and of Gubarev\u2019s media outlets \u201cDNR Live\u201d and novorossia.su were offline for the whole weekend.<\/p>\n Also on September 29, a bomb exploded outside the house where the \u201cDNR\u201d Communist Party was holding a convention in Donetsk, injuring election candidate<\/a> Igor Khakimzyanov. While the Communist Party is not registered, Khakimzyanov had been collecting signatures at the convention for his candidacy in the November election. As a result, he did not hand in any signatures and was subsequently excluded<\/a> from the race. \u201cDNR\u201d official media<\/a> accused him of staging the explosion in order to raise attention to his candidacy. Khakimzyanov served as the Donetsk separatists\u2019 first Defence Minister for less than one month in early 2014.<\/p>\n Already on September 20, former field commander Alexander Khodakovsky, for years the most vocal critic of the Donetsk separatist leadership, was prevented from entering the \u201cDNR\u201d (see Newsletter 43<\/a>).<\/p>\n Pushilin, meanwhile, took all hurdles for the November 11 \u201celections\u201d by receiving official candidate status<\/a> on September 28. Pushilin also assumed the chairmanship<\/a> of the \u201cDNR\u201d ruling party \u201cDonetsk Republic\u201d after delegates approved him unanimously during a convention on September 25. The chair was previously held by Zakharchenko, while Pushilin served as executive officer until he was ousted last year (see Newsletter 24<\/a>).<\/p>\n \u201cDonetsk Republic\u201d also received participant status<\/a> for the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to be held parallel with the leadership vote on November 11.<\/p>\n Pasechnik to face three obscure candidates<\/strong><\/p>\n In Luhansk, the number of candidates that might stand against separatist leader Leonid Pasechnik has been reduced to three. The \u201cLNR\u201d Election Commission said on September 28<\/a> that only four of the eight registered candidates handed in the signature lists necessary to receive official candidate status. Pasechnik is one of them. The former intelligence officer, who has never been elected and came to power after a coup last year, is expected to win the election easily because there are no prominent figures at all among the seven original contestants.<\/p>\n Ukraine and her Western allies condemn the \u201celections\u201d as violating the Minsk agreement, which stipulates the holding of local elections under Ukrainian law. If they are carried out, Russia proves its disdain for the obligations it took on in Minsk, Ukraine\u2019s Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Ihor Prokopchuk, was quoted as saying<\/a> on September 28.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Written by Nikolaus von Twickel Summary Wiretapped conversations released by Ukraine\u2019s intelligence agency back the theory that the killing of separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko was organized by people in Moscow and Donetsk involving his Kremlin-backed successor Denis Pushilin. Both Pushilin...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[244],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1529"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1529"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1529\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1530,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1529\/revisions\/1530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/civicmonitoring.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}